Filing Flows › Dover (DOV) › Takeover & LBO
Is Dover (DOV) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($267.81 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $157.42 a share (−24% against today's $206.01). Historically 3.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.72× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $267.81 | today's $206.01 plus 30% |
| × shares | 134.9 million | |
| = Equity value | $36.1B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $3.9B | |
| − Cash | $1.7B | |
| = Enterprise value | $38.4B | 20.7× EBITDA of $1.9B |
| Fees | $768M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $10.2B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $28.9B | 74% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $9.3B | $2.0B | $780M | $750M | $9.4B |
| Year 2 | $9.9B | $2.1B | $723M | $899M | $8.5B |
| Year 3 | $10.4B | $2.3B | $654M | $1.0B | $7.5B |
| Year 4 | $10.9B | $2.4B | $574M | $1.2B | $6.3B |
| Year 5 | $11.2B | $2.4B | $483M | $1.3B | $5.0B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 16.2× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $39.2B | |
| − Debt left | $5.0B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $34.2B | |
| Money multiple | 1.18× | on $28.9B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 3.4% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $206.01; the IRR reaches 20% at $157.42 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $226.61 | 8.0% |
| 20% | $247.21 | 5.6% |
| 30% | $267.81 | 3.4% |
| 40% | $288.41 | 1.5% |
| 50% | $309.01 | −0.2% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $8.6B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $1.9B | 21.6% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $392M | |
| Capital spending | $220M | |
| Debt | $3.9B | |
| Cash | $1.7B | |
| Share price | $206.01 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Dover would cost about $288.41 a share, $38.9B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $236.29 | $31.9B |
| Median | 40% | $288.41 | $38.9B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $330.03 | $44.5B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.72× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Dover's latest quarter
Dover, Q3 2026: revenue $2.2B (+8% year over year), operating margin 18.8%, net earnings $333M, operating cash flow $439M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Dover being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Dover?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($267.81 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $157.42 a share (−24% against today's $206.01).
What would a takeover of Dover cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Dover would cost about $288.41 a share, $38.9B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.