Filing Flows › Darden Restaurants (DRI) › Takeover & LBO
Is Darden Restaurants (DRI) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($294.24 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $177.63 a share (−22% against today's $226.34). Historically 3.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.66× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $294.24 | today's $226.34 plus 30% |
| × shares | 114.4 million | |
| = Equity value | $33.7B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $2.6B | |
| − Cash | $220M | |
| = Enterprise value | $36.1B | 16.9× EBITDA of $2.1B |
| Fees | $721M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $11.7B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $25.0B | 68% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $14.4B | $2.3B | $898M | $405M | $11.3B |
| Year 2 | $15.4B | $2.5B | $867M | $529M | $10.8B |
| Year 3 | $16.3B | $2.6B | $826M | $653M | $10.1B |
| Year 4 | $16.9B | $2.7B | $776M | $774M | $9.4B |
| Year 5 | $17.5B | $2.8B | $717M | $889M | $8.5B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 13.3× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $36.9B | |
| − Debt left | $8.5B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $28.5B | |
| Money multiple | 1.14× | on $25.0B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 2.6% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $226.34; the IRR reaches 20% at $177.63 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $248.97 | 7.6% |
| 20% | $271.61 | 4.9% |
| 30% | $294.24 | 2.6% |
| 40% | $316.88 | 0.6% |
| 50% | $339.51 | −1.3% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $13.4B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $2.1B | 16.0% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $570M | |
| Capital spending | $735M | |
| Debt | $2.6B | |
| Cash | $220M | |
| Share price | $226.34 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 13% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Darden Restaurants would cost about $299.90 a share, $34.3B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $271.61 | $31.1B |
| Median | 32.5% | $299.90 | $34.3B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $343.58 | $39.3B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.66× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Darden Restaurants' latest quarter
Darden Restaurants, Q1 FY27: revenue $3.2B (+5% year over year), operating margin 10.0%, net earnings $233M, operating cash flow $279M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Darden Restaurants being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Darden Restaurants?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($294.24 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $177.63 a share (−22% against today's $226.34).
What would a takeover of Darden Restaurants cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Darden Restaurants would cost about $299.90 a share, $34.3B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.