Filing Flows › EMCOR Group (EME) › Takeover & LBO
Is EMCOR Group (EME) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($773.92 a share) would return about 5% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 2.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.42× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $773.92 | today's $595.32 plus 30% |
| × shares | 44.2 million | |
| = Equity value | $34.2B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $775M | |
| + Other claims | $1.0M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $33.5B | 14.6× EBITDA of $2.3B |
| Fees | $669M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $12.6B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $21.6B | 63% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $21.4B | $2.5B | $961M | $875M | $11.7B |
| Year 2 | $22.9B | $2.6B | $894M | $1.1B | $10.6B |
| Year 3 | $24.1B | $2.8B | $814M | $1.2B | $9.4B |
| Year 4 | $25.2B | $2.9B | $719M | $1.4B | $8.0B |
| Year 5 | $25.9B | $3.0B | $611M | $1.6B | $6.4B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 11.2× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $33.4B | |
| − Debt left | $6.4B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $27.0B | |
| Money multiple | 1.25× | on $21.6B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 4.6% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $595.32.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $654.85 | 10.8% |
| 20% | $714.38 | 7.4% |
| 30% | $773.92 | 4.6% |
| 40% | $833.45 | 2.2% |
| 50% | $892.98 | 0.0% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $19.8B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $2.3B | 11.5% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $214M | |
| Capital spending | $129M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $775M | |
| Share price | $595.32 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 26% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, EMCOR Group would cost about $833.45 a share, $36.9B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $682.83 | $30.2B |
| Median | 40% | $833.45 | $36.9B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $953.70 | $42.2B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.42× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
EMCOR Group's latest quarter
EMCOR Group, Q3 2026: revenue $5.5B (+29% year over year), operating margin 9.8%, net earnings $400M, operating cash flow $797M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is EMCOR Group being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy EMCOR Group?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($773.92 a share) would return about 5% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of EMCOR Group cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, EMCOR Group would cost about $833.45 a share, $36.9B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.