Filing Flows › Enphase Energy (ENPH) › Takeover & LBO
Is Enphase Energy (ENPH) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($39.81 a share) would return a loss of about 6% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 4.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.95× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $39.81 | today's $30.62 plus 30% |
| × shares | 135.2 million | |
| = Equity value | $5.4B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $573M | |
| − Cash | $931M | |
| = Enterprise value | $5.0B | 38.0× EBITDA of $132M |
| Fees | $100M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $728M | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $4.4B | 86% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.2B | $128M | $55.7M | $28.1M | $700M |
| Year 2 | $1.2B | $126M | $53.5M | $29.0M | $671M |
| Year 3 | $1.2B | $126M | $51.3M | $31.2M | $639M |
| Year 4 | $1.2B | $128M | $48.9M | $33.1M | $606M |
| Year 5 | $1.2B | $132M | $46.4M | $35.4M | $571M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 28.6× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $3.8B | |
| − Debt left | $571M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $3.2B | |
| Money multiple | 0.73× | on $4.4B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −6.1% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $30.62.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $33.68 | −2.0% |
| 20% | $36.74 | −4.2% |
| 30% | $39.81 | −6.1% |
| 40% | $42.87 | −7.8% |
| 50% | $45.93 | −9.4% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.2B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $132M | 10.9% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $81.5M | |
| Capital spending | $45.9M | |
| Debt | $573M | |
| Cash | $931M | |
| Share price | $30.62 | on Oct 16, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows -3.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 23% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Enphase Energy would cost about $39.81 a share, $5.4B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $34.29 | $4.6B |
| Median | 30% | $39.81 | $5.4B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $40.11 | $5.4B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.95× the average). Its figures put it in decile 5 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Enphase Energy's latest quarter
Enphase Energy, Q3 2026: revenue $293M (-28% year over year), operating margin 2.2%, net earnings $23.4M, operating cash flow $90K. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Enphase Energy being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Enphase Energy?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($39.81 a share) would return a loss of about 6% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Enphase Energy cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Enphase Energy would cost about $39.81 a share, $5.4B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.