Filing Flows › Erie Indemnity (ERIE) › Stock forecast & fair value
Erie Indemnity (ERIE) stock forecast and fair value
Erie Indemnity (ERIE) trades at $273.07. Across 13 valuation methods the middle fair value is $135.29 (-50%).
Fair value by method
| Method | Low | Point | High | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E vs peers | $219.42 | $272.97 | $484.91 | 0% |
| P/E vs peers, weighted | $215.55 | $272.23 | $421.40 | -0.3% |
| Residual income | $76.97 | $79.97 | $83.16 | -71% |
| P/B vs ROE (insurer peers) | $54.89 | $122.82 | $190.75 | -55% |
| Shareholder yield (dividends + buybacks) | $82.63 | $99.05 | $123.62 | -64% |
| Justified P/B (Gordon growth) | $201.48 | $258.52 | $360.63 | -5% |
| Dividend discount (Gordon) | $111.59 | $143.19 | $199.74 | -48% |
| Stage-weighted value (financial (bank / insurer)) | $112.89 | $153.64 | $221.67 | -44% |
| Combined forecast (3 months) | $223.63 | $283.98 | $351.85 | +4% |
| Graham number | $88.30 | $108.15 | $124.88 | -60% |
Erie Indemnity's latest quarter
Erie Indemnity, Q3 2026: revenue $1.1B (+0.3% year over year), operating margin 19.4%, net earnings $182M, operating cash flow $213M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
What is Erie Indemnity's fair value?
The fair-value methods on Filing Flows (DCF, Monte Carlo, peer multiples and others) put it between $55.09 and $283.98, with a middle value of $135.29 against a price of $273.07. Each method's assumptions are on the page.
Does Erie Indemnity usually beat earnings estimates?
It beat the consensus EPS estimate in 80% of the quarters on record.
Is ERIE stock a buy?
Filing Flows does not give advice. It shows what analysts expect, what each valuation method implies and the figures behind them, read from SEC filings, so you can judge for yourself.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.