Filing Flows › Exelon (EXC) › Takeover & LBO
Is Exelon (EXC) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($60.49 a share) would return a loss of about 7% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $11.58 a share (−75% against today's $46.53). At $111.4B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 2.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.56× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $60.49 | today's $46.53 plus 30% |
| × shares | 1,026.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $62.1B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $50.1B | |
| − Cash | $713M | |
| = Enterprise value | $111.4B | 12.5× EBITDA of $8.9B |
| Fees | $2.2B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $49.0B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $64.7B | 57% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $25.9B | $9.3B | $3.7B | −$4.2B | $53.2B |
| Year 2 | $27.0B | $9.7B | $4.1B | −$4.5B | $57.7B |
| Year 3 | $28.0B | $10.1B | $4.4B | −$4.8B | $62.5B |
| Year 4 | $29.0B | $10.4B | $4.8B | −$5.1B | $67.6B |
| Year 5 | $29.9B | $10.7B | $5.2B | −$5.5B | $73.1B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 10.9× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $117.0B | |
| − Debt left | $73.1B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $43.9B | |
| Money multiple | 0.68× | on $64.7B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −7.5% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $46.53; the IRR reaches 20% at $11.58 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $51.18 | −4.4% |
| 20% | $55.84 | −6.0% |
| 30% | $60.49 | −7.5% |
| 40% | $65.14 | −8.8% |
| 50% | $69.80 | −10.0% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $24.8B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $8.9B | 35.9% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $3.7B | |
| Capital spending | $8.9B | |
| Debt | $50.1B | |
| Cash | $713M | |
| Share price | $46.53 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 4.6% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 17% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Exelon would cost about $61.65 a share, $63.3B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $55.84 | $57.3B |
| Median | 32.5% | $61.65 | $63.3B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $70.63 | $72.5B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.56× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Exelon's latest quarter
Exelon, Q1 2026: revenue $7.2B (+8% year over year), operating margin 22.2%, net earnings $919M, operating cash flow $1.7B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Exelon being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Exelon?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($60.49 a share) would return a loss of about 7% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $11.58 a share (−75% against today's $46.53). At $111.4B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Exelon cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Exelon would cost about $61.65 a share, $63.3B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.