Filing Flows › Exelixis (EXEL) › Takeover & LBO
Is Exelixis (EXEL) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($90.21 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 2.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.49× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $90.21 | today's $69.39 plus 30% |
| × shares | 255.8 million | |
| = Equity value | $23.1B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $892M | |
| = Enterprise value | $22.2B | 21.5× EBITDA of $1.0B |
| Fees | $444M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $5.7B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $17.0B | 75% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $2.7B | $1.1B | $434M | $510M | $5.2B |
| Year 2 | $2.9B | $1.2B | $395M | $602M | $4.6B |
| Year 3 | $3.0B | $1.3B | $349M | $692M | $3.9B |
| Year 4 | $3.2B | $1.3B | $296M | $779M | $3.1B |
| Year 5 | $3.3B | $1.3B | $236M | $860M | $2.2B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 16.3× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $22.0B | |
| − Debt left | $2.2B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $19.8B | |
| Money multiple | 1.17× | on $17.0B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 3.1% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $69.39.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $76.33 | 8.2% |
| 20% | $83.27 | 5.5% |
| 30% | $90.21 | 3.1% |
| 40% | $97.15 | 1.1% |
| 50% | $104.09 | −0.8% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $2.5B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $1.0B | 41.3% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $27.8M | |
| Capital spending | $12.0M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $892M | |
| Share price | $69.39 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Exelixis would cost about $93.68 a share, $24.0B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 22% | $84.66 | $21.7B |
| Median | 35% | $93.68 | $24.0B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 45% | $100.62 | $25.7B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.49× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Exelixis' latest quarter
Exelixis, Q3 2026: revenue $659M (+10% year over year), operating margin 40.8%, net earnings $218M, operating cash flow $280M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Exelixis being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Exelixis?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($90.21 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Exelixis cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Exelixis would cost about $93.68 a share, $24.0B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.