Filing Flows › Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) › Takeover & LBO
Is Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($75.27 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $47.06 a share (−19% against today's $57.90). At $126.2B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 2.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.48× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $75.27 | today's $57.90 plus 30% |
| × shares | 1,442.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $108.5B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $9.4B | |
| − Cash | $4.3B | |
| + Other claims | $12.6B | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $126.2B | 13.5× EBITDA of $9.3B |
| Fees | $2.5B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $51.4B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $77.4B | 60% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $26.9B | $9.5B | $3.9B | $4.5B | $46.9B |
| Year 2 | $27.4B | $9.7B | $3.6B | $4.9B | $42.0B |
| Year 3 | $28.1B | $9.9B | $3.2B | $5.3B | $36.6B |
| Year 4 | $28.8B | $10.2B | $2.8B | $5.8B | $30.8B |
| Year 5 | $29.7B | $10.5B | $2.4B | $6.4B | $24.4B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 10.8× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $113.6B | |
| − Debt left | $24.4B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $89.2B | |
| Money multiple | 1.15× | on $77.4B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 2.9% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $57.90; the IRR reaches 20% at $47.06 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $63.69 | 8.1% |
| 20% | $69.48 | 5.3% |
| 30% | $75.27 | 2.9% |
| 40% | $81.06 | 0.8% |
| 50% | $86.85 | −1.1% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $26.4B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $9.3B | 35.3% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $2.0B | |
| Debt | $9.4B | |
| Cash | $4.3B | |
| Share price | $57.90 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 1.7% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 29% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Freeport-McMoRan would cost about $76.72 a share, $110.6B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $69.48 | $100.2B |
| Median | 32.5% | $76.72 | $110.6B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $87.89 | $126.7B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.48× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Freeport-McMoRan's latest quarter
Freeport-McMoRan, Q3 2026: revenue $7.5B (+8% year over year), operating margin 31.2%, net earnings $1.2B, operating cash flow $2.0B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Freeport-McMoRan being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Freeport-McMoRan?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($75.27 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $47.06 a share (−19% against today's $57.90). At $126.2B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Freeport-McMoRan cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Freeport-McMoRan would cost about $76.72 a share, $110.6B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.