Filing Flows › FedEx (FDX) › Takeover & LBO
Is FedEx (FDX) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($411.84 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $286.42 a share (−10% against today's $316.80). At $109.6B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 1.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.38× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $411.84 | today's $316.80 plus 30% |
| × shares | 239.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $98.4B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $24.2B | |
| − Cash | $13.1B | |
| = Enterprise value | $109.6B | 11.1× EBITDA of $9.8B |
| Fees | $2.2B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $54.1B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $57.7B | 52% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $102.3B | $10.6B | $4.1B | $1.2B | $52.9B |
| Year 2 | $109.2B | $11.3B | $4.0B | $1.7B | $51.2B |
| Year 3 | $115.2B | $12.0B | $3.9B | $2.2B | $49.0B |
| Year 4 | $120.1B | $12.5B | $3.8B | $2.7B | $46.4B |
| Year 5 | $123.7B | $12.8B | $3.5B | $3.1B | $43.3B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 8.8× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $113.4B | |
| − Debt left | $43.3B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $70.2B | |
| Money multiple | 1.22× | on $57.7B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 4.0% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $316.80; the IRR reaches 20% at $286.42 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $348.48 | 10.7% |
| 20% | $380.16 | 7.0% |
| 30% | $411.84 | 4.0% |
| 40% | $443.52 | 1.4% |
| 50% | $475.20 | −0.8% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $94.7B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $9.8B | 10.4% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $4.4B | |
| Capital spending | $3.8B | |
| Debt | $24.2B | |
| Cash | $13.1B | |
| Share price | $316.80 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 23% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, FedEx would cost about $443.52 a share, $106.0B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $363.37 | $86.8B |
| Median | 40% | $443.52 | $106.0B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $507.51 | $121.3B |
The odds, from history
Historically 1.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.38× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
FedEx's latest quarter
FedEx, Q1 FY27: revenue $22.9B (+12% year over year), operating margin 4.7%, net earnings $290M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is FedEx being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy FedEx?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($411.84 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $286.42 a share (−10% against today's $316.80). At $109.6B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of FedEx cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, FedEx would cost about $443.52 a share, $106.0B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.