Filing Flows › Fair Isaac (FICO) › Takeover & LBO
Is Fair Isaac (FICO) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($924.60 a share) would return about 5% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $510.98 a share (−28% against today's $711.23). Historically 3.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.62× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $924.60 | today's $711.23 plus 30% |
| × shares | 23.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $21.3B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $5.3B | |
| − Cash | $218M | |
| = Enterprise value | $26.3B | 20.5× EBITDA of $1.3B |
| Fees | $526M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $7.1B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $19.8B | 74% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $2.7B | $1.4B | $540M | $623M | $6.4B |
| Year 2 | $2.9B | $1.5B | $492M | $733M | $5.7B |
| Year 3 | $3.1B | $1.6B | $436M | $839M | $4.9B |
| Year 4 | $3.2B | $1.6B | $372M | $941M | $3.9B |
| Year 5 | $3.3B | $1.7B | $300M | $1.0B | $2.9B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 16.7× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $27.9B | |
| − Debt left | $2.9B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $25.1B | |
| Money multiple | 1.27× | on $19.8B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 4.9% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $711.23; the IRR reaches 20% at $510.98 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $782.35 | 8.8% |
| 20% | $853.48 | 6.7% |
| 30% | $924.60 | 4.9% |
| 40% | $995.72 | 3.2% |
| 50% | $1,066.85 | 1.6% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $2.5B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $1.3B | 50.6% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $16.7M | |
| Capital spending | $2.1M | |
| Debt | $5.3B | |
| Cash | $218M | |
| Share price | $711.23 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 24% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Fair Isaac would cost about $995.72 a share, $22.9B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $815.78 | $18.8B |
| Median | 40% | $995.72 | $22.9B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $1,139.39 | $26.2B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.62× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Fair Isaac's latest quarter
Fair Isaac, Q4 FY26: revenue $657M (+27% year over year), operating margin 40.6%, net earnings $175M, operating cash flow $294M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Fair Isaac being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Fair Isaac?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($924.60 a share) would return about 5% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $510.98 a share (−28% against today's $711.23).
What would a takeover of Fair Isaac cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Fair Isaac would cost about $995.72 a share, $22.9B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.