Filing Flows › Shift4 Payments (FOUR) › Takeover & LBO
Is Shift4 Payments (FOUR) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($57.49 a share) would return about 19% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $54.67 a share (24% against today's $44.23). Historically 5.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.08× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $57.49 | today's $44.23 plus 30% |
| × shares | 74.9 million | |
| = Equity value | $4.3B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $5.5B | |
| − Cash | $1.2B | |
| + Other claims | $122M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $8.7B | 9.2× EBITDA of $940M |
| Fees | $173M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $5.2B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $3.7B | 42% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $5.3B | $1.0B | $396M | $554M | $4.6B |
| Year 2 | $5.7B | $1.1B | $353M | $653M | $4.0B |
| Year 3 | $6.0B | $1.1B | $303M | $753M | $3.2B |
| Year 4 | $6.2B | $1.2B | $246M | $849M | $2.4B |
| Year 5 | $6.4B | $1.2B | $181M | $941M | $1.4B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 8.2× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $10.0B | |
| − Debt left | $1.4B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $8.6B | |
| Money multiple | 2.34× | on $3.7B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 18.6% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $44.23; the IRR reaches 20% at $54.67 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $48.65 | 23.5% |
| 20% | $53.07 | 20.9% |
| 30% | $57.49 | 18.6% |
| 40% | $61.91 | 16.5% |
| 50% | $66.34 | 14.6% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $4.9B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $940M | 19.1% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $537M | |
| Capital spending | $18.0M | |
| Debt | $5.5B | |
| Cash | $1.2B | |
| Share price | $44.23 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 18% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Shift4 Payments would cost about $61.91 a share, $4.6B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $50.73 | $3.8B |
| Median | 40% | $61.91 | $4.6B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $70.85 | $5.3B |
The odds, from history
Historically 5.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.08× the average). Its figures put it in decile 7 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Shift4 Payments' latest quarter
Shift4 Payments, Q3 2026: revenue $1.3B (+12% year over year), operating margin 9.9%, net earnings $38.0M, operating cash flow $221M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Shift4 Payments being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Shift4 Payments?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($57.49 a share) would return about 19% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $54.67 a share (24% against today's $44.23).
What would a takeover of Shift4 Payments cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Shift4 Payments would cost about $61.91 a share, $4.6B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.