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Gaia (GAIA): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q3 2026, to Sep 30, 2026, filed Nov 2, 2026; rules v1.1
Gaia (GAIA): 0 rules of 10 triggered on the filings to Sep 30, 2026. 1 to review; 3 with insufficient data; 3 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
Receivables growing = future cash is certain To review · confidence medium
Receivables outgrew revenue in Q3 2026 (13% against -12%) and DSO is 25 against a median of 21; one quarter can be timing, so this is one to watch rather than a pattern.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Not triggered confidence high
Free cash flow did not rise ($2M → −$377K): the trap does not arise.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year before | FY2024 |
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Operating cash flow, year before | $7M |
| Operating cash flow | $6M |
| Capex, year before | $5M |
| Capex | $6M |
| Free cash flow, year before | $2M |
| Free cash flow | −$377K |
| Change in FCF | −$2M |
| Change in capex | $1M |
| Working capital: change in its cash contribution | −$3M |
FCF = operating cash flow − cash capex; ΔFCF = ΔOCF − ΔCapEx; the working-capital part is the change in the cash-bridge items (receivables, inventory, payables, accruals), with the sign of the cash flow statement
Source: FY2025 (cash flow statement, fiscal year) · FY2024 (cash flow statement, fiscal year before)
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Not triggered confidence high
Stock compensation is 1.7% of revenue: small enough that adding it back changes little.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Stock compensation | $2M |
| Revenue | $99M |
| SBC / revenue | +1.7% |
| Buybacks | 0 |
| Buybacks / SBC | 0.0 |
| Diluted shares, year before | 23.3M shares |
| Diluted shares | 24.9M shares |
| Diluted shares: change | +6.5% |
SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section
Source: FY2025 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain To review confidence medium
Receivables outgrew revenue in Q3 2026 (13% against -12%) and DSO is 25 against a median of 21; one quarter can be timing, so this is one to watch rather than a pattern.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 2026 |
| Revenue, year over year | -11.8% |
| Receivables, year over year | +13.2% |
| Quarter before | Q2 2026 |
| Revenue y/y, quarter before | -5.3% |
| Receivables y/y, quarter before | -4.5% |
| Days sales outstanding | 24.7 |
| DSO, median of eight quarters | 20.9 |
| Receivables | $6M |
| Revenue | $22M |
receivables and revenue against the same quarter a year earlier; DSO = receivables / quarterly revenue × days, against the median of the eight quarters before
Source: Q3 2026 (receivables and revenue) · Q3 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
What would show the trap does not apply
- Receivables fall back in line with revenue in the next quarter and DSO returns to its history
- The 10-Q attributes the increase to a disclosed one-off (a large customer's timing, an acquisition) and the allowance for doubtful accounts did not rise
Look again: next filing.
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Insufficient data
no reconciliation table read from the releases yet and fewer than three quarters with both an adjusted and a GAAP EPS
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Not triggered confidence medium
$227K comes due within a year, 31.3× covered by cash and investments of $7M.
The figures and how they are read
| Cash and investments | $7M |
| Debt | $6M |
| Net debt | −$2M |
| Due within a year | $227K |
| Read from | the debt maturity table |
| Free cash flow, twelve months | −$14M |
| Cash plus free cash flow | $7M |
| Coverage of what is due | 31.3 |
| Due in the second year | $227K |
| Balance sheet date | 2026-09-30 |
due within a year from the maturity table (else the current portion of debt), against cash and investments plus free cash flow over the last twelve months (zero if negative); no credit lines assumed
Source: FY2025 (debt maturities, cash and investments)
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not applicable
a loss in one of the quarters: EPS growth has no meaning
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued Insufficient data
no market value or trailing net income in the valuation research
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value Insufficient data
no DCF in the valuation research for this company
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → Gaia: cash flow →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.