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Gatx (GATX): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q3 2026, to Sep 30, 2026, filed Oct 30, 2026; rules v1.1
Gatx (GATX): 0 rules of 10 triggered on the filings to Sep 30, 2026. 1 to review; 5 with insufficient data; 2 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued To review · confidence medium
Net income of $391M is at a high against a median of $211M over eight years; at 16.5× the market is not pricing it as cheap, but a multiple on this year's profit still understates the mid-cycle one (30.6×).
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Insufficient data
fewer than two fiscal years with operating cash flow and capital expenditure on file
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Not triggered confidence high
Stock compensation is 1.4% of revenue: small enough that adding it back changes little.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Stock compensation | $25M |
| Revenue | $1.7B |
| SBC / revenue | +1.4% |
| Buybacks | $65M |
| Buybacks / SBC | 2.6 |
| Diluted shares, year before | 35.9M shares |
| Diluted shares | 35.9M shares |
| Diluted shares: change | +0.0% |
SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section
Source: FY2025 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Insufficient data
no quarter a year earlier to compare the last two quarters with
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Insufficient data
no reconciliation table read from the releases yet and fewer than three quarters with both an adjusted and a GAAP EPS
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Not triggered confidence medium
$653M comes due within a year, 1.9× covered by cash and investments of $390M plus $864M of free cash flow.
The figures and how they are read
| Cash and investments | $390M |
| Debt | $12.5B |
| Net debt | $12.1B |
| Due within a year | $653M |
| Read from | the debt maturity table |
| Free cash flow, twelve months | $864M |
| Cash plus free cash flow | $1.3B |
| Coverage of what is due | 1.9 |
| Due in the second year | $854M |
| Balance sheet date | 2026-09-30 |
due within a year from the maturity table (else the current portion of debt), against cash and investments plus free cash flow over the last twelve months (zero if negative); no credit lines assumed
Source: FY2025 (debt maturities, cash and investments)
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Insufficient data
no quarter with EPS, net income and diluted shares for both this year and last
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued To review confidence medium
Net income of $391M is at a high against a median of $211M over eight years; at 16.5× the market is not pricing it as cheap, but a multiple on this year's profit still understates the mid-cycle one (30.6×).
The figures and how they are read
| market value | $6.5B |
| net income ttm | $391M |
| pe ttm | 16.50 |
| net income median fy | $211M |
| pe mid cycle | 30.60 |
| net income peak fy | $333M |
| years | FY2018 / 211.0; FY2019 / 211.0; FY2020 / 151.0; FY2021 / 143.0; FY2022 / 156.0; FY2023 / 259.0; FY2024 / 284.0; FY2025 / 333.0 |
| down years in window | 3 |
P/E on the trailing twelve months' net income against the P/E on the median net income of the last eight fiscal years (a mid-cycle stand-in); 'at a peak' = this year's profit at or above 90% of the best year and at least 1.3× the median
Source: Q3 2026 (net income, trailing twelve months)
What would show the trap does not apply
- Profit holds at this level through the next two years (the eight-year peak was a new base, not a top)
- The industry's capacity and prices stay where they are rather than reverting
Look again: next filing.
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value Insufficient data
no DCF in the valuation research for this company
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → Gatx: cash flow → Earnings quality score →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.