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Genesis Energy LP (GEL): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q3 2026, to Sep 30, 2026, filed Nov 5, 2026; rules v1.1
Genesis Energy LP (GEL): 2 rules of 10 triggered on the filings to Sep 30, 2026: FCF growth = the business improved. 1 to review; 2 with insufficient data; 3 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
FCF growth = the business improved Triggered · severity high · confidence medium
Free cash flow rose $261M, from −$195M to $66M, but capital expenditure fell by $400M: more than the whole increase came from sources that need not repeat. Operating cash flow before working capital fell by $24M.
Innocent reading: An expansion programme finished, so capex fell back to maintenance levels for good.
A precise DCF value = the true value To review · confidence high
The DCF's point value is 58.43 a share (price 12.86); 73% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving wacc by ±1 pt alone takes it from 43.98 to 81.32; across every method the research ran the range is -19 to 241. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
Innocent reading: A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Triggered severity high · confidence medium
Free cash flow rose $261M, from −$195M to $66M, but capital expenditure fell by $400M: more than the whole increase came from sources that need not repeat. Operating cash flow before working capital fell by $24M.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year before | FY2024 |
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Operating cash flow, year before | $392M |
| Operating cash flow | $253M |
| Capex, year before | $587M |
| Capex | $187M |
| Free cash flow, year before | −$195M |
| Free cash flow | $66M |
| Change in FCF | $261M |
| Change in capex | −$400M |
| Working capital: change in its cash contribution | −$115M |
| Of which: capex cut | $400M |
| Of which: working capital released | 0.00 |
| Share of the increase that need not repeat | +153.3% |
| Operating cash flow before working capital: change | -23779000.00 |
FCF = operating cash flow − cash capex; ΔFCF = ΔOCF − ΔCapEx; the working-capital part is the change in the cash-bridge items (receivables, inventory, payables, accruals), with the sign of the cash flow statement
Source: FY2025 (cash flow statement, fiscal year) · FY2024 (cash flow statement, fiscal year before)
What would explain it innocently
- An expansion programme finished, so capex fell back to maintenance levels for good
- Suppliers agreed longer payment terms in a contract
- Inventory was brought down after a glut and will stay down
What to look for in the filing
- Maintenance capex (what it costs to keep the assets working)
- Supplier payment terms and any supply-chain financing
- Management's capex guidance for next year
What would show the trap does not apply
- Next year's FCF holds or rises with capex back at its earlier level and working capital no longer releasing cash
- The 10-K's capex guidance and the segment capex show the cut is a completed programme, not deferral
- The working-capital release matches a disclosed change in terms or a divestiture, not stretched payables or a collection push
Look again: next filing.
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Not triggered confidence high
Stock compensation is 0.9% of revenue: small enough that adding it back changes little.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Stock compensation | $15M |
| Revenue | $1.6B |
| SBC / revenue | +0.9% |
| Buybacks | 0 |
| Buybacks / SBC | 0.0 |
| Diluted shares, year before | 122.5M shares |
| Diluted shares | 122.5M shares |
| Diluted shares: change | +0.0% |
SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section
Source: FY2025 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Triggered severity high · confidence medium
Receivables grew 82% year over year in Q3 2026 against revenue growth of 9%, and the quarter before 138% against 41%; days sales outstanding is 230 against a median of 124 over the eight quarters before. More of each quarter's revenue is still owed by customers.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 2026 |
| Revenue, year over year | +8.5% |
| Receivables, year over year | +82.5% |
| Quarter before | Q2 2026 |
| Revenue y/y, quarter before | +41.0% |
| Receivables y/y, quarter before | +138.1% |
| Days sales outstanding | 229.7 |
| DSO, median of eight quarters | 123.7 |
| Receivables | $1.1B |
| Revenue | $449M |
receivables and revenue against the same quarter a year earlier; DSO = receivables / quarterly revenue × days, against the median of the eight quarters before
Source: Q3 2026 (receivables and revenue) · Q3 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
What would explain it innocently
- Seasonality: a quarter that always ends with big shipments
- An acquisition brought its own receivables
- New business with longer standard terms (government, large enterprise)
- Currency: receivables booked in a strengthening currency
What to look for in the filing
- The receivables ageing and the allowance for credit losses
- Any factoring or receivables sold (and whether with recourse)
- Credit terms by customer group
What would show the trap does not apply
- Receivables fall back in line with revenue in the next quarter and DSO returns to its history
- The 10-Q attributes the increase to a disclosed one-off (a large customer's timing, an acquisition) and the allowance for doubtful accounts did not rise
Look again: next filing.
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Insufficient data
1 quarter with a reconciliation table on file (three are needed) and fewer than three quarters with both an adjusted and a GAAP EPS
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Insufficient data
neither a maturity table nor the current portion of debt is on file
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not triggered confidence high
EPS fell 73% and net income fell 74% in Q3 2026; the share count fell 0.2%: EPS growth follows profit growth.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 2026 |
| Quarter before | Q3 2025 |
| EPS, year before | $0.07 |
| EPS | $0.02 |
| Net income, year before | $9M |
| Net income | $2M |
| Diluted shares, year before | 122.5M shares |
| Diluted shares | 122.2M shares |
| EPS growth | -73.3% |
| Net income growth | -73.8% |
| Diluted shares: change | -0.2% |
| eps from profit | -$0.06 |
| eps from share count | $0.00 |
EPS and net income against the same quarter a year earlier; the EPS bridge attributes the change to profit first, then to the share count (the order is fixed and disclosed)
Source: Q3 2026 (net income, diluted shares, EPS) · Q3 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued Not applicable
a loss on a trailing or mid-cycle basis: the P/E has no meaning
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value To review confidence high
The DCF's point value is 58.43 a share (price 12.86); 73% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving wacc by ±1 pt alone takes it from 43.98 to 81.32; across every method the research ran the range is -19 to 241. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
The figures and how they are read
| dcf value | 58.43 |
| price | 12.86 |
| terminal value share | +73.3% |
| swing by input | WACC / ±1 pt / 43.98 / 81.32; Revenue growth (each year) / ±5 pts / 43.21 / 76.44; Operating margin / ±3 pts / 45.53 / 71.32; Terminal growth / ±0.5 pt / 55.16 / 62.5 |
| range all methods | -18.65; 240.54 |
the DCF's point value against the share of it that is the terminal value and the value at each input moved by one step (growth ±5 pts, WACC ±1 pt, margin ±3 pts …); the range across every method the research ran
Source: 2026-11-08 (valuation research)
What would explain it innocently
- A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary
- The inputs that matter most are themselves well known (a regulated return, a long contract)
What to look for in the filing
- Which input you believe differs from the research's and why
- What the price implies for growth (the reverse DCF on the fair-value page)
What would show the trap does not apply
- The DCF's value is robust to the terminal growth and discount rate (the range's low end is still above the price)
- The company's cash flows over the next three years track the DCF's early years
Look again: next filing.
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → Genesis Energy LP: cash flow →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.