Filing Flows › GEO Group (GEO) › Guidance history
GEO Group (GEO) guidance history: what it guided and what it reported
GEO Group gave guidance in 3 earnings releases on file since May 6, 2026. Of 2 guided periods since reported, it met or beat its own guidance twice (100%). Revenue: 2 of 2, on average -0.4% against the guided midpoint. Its releases raised guidance 3 times and lowered it once.
Revenue
Met or beat 2 of 2 periods (1 above, 1 within, 0 below).
| Period | Guided (and how it moved) | Reported | Result | vs midpoint |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $755M–$805M (Aug 6, 2026) | $761M | within the range | -2.4% |
| Q4 2026 | $758M–$808M (Aug 6, 2026) → raised $777M–$827M (Nov 5, 2026) | — | to be reported | — |
| Q2 2026 | $715M–$725M (May 6, 2026) | $732M | above the range | +1.7% |
| FY2026 | $3.0B–$3.1B (May 6, 2026) → lowered $3.0B–$3.0B (Aug 6, 2026) → reaffirmed $3.0B–$3.0B (Nov 5, 2026) | — | to be reported | — |
Net income
This line is not in the statements Filing Flows reads, so there is no reported figure to hold it to.
| Period | Guided (and how it moved) | Reported | Result | vs midpoint |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2026 | $37.0M–$41.0M (Aug 6, 2026) | — | to be reported | — |
| Q3 2026 | $45.0M–$48.0M (Aug 6, 2026) | — | — | — |
| Q2 2026 | $33.0M–$39.0M (May 6, 2026) | — | — | — |
| FY2026 | $153M–$166M (May 6, 2026) → raised $168M–$175M (Aug 6, 2026) | — | to be reported | — |
Adjusted net income
Every guided period is still to be reported.
| Period | Guided (and how it moved) | Reported | Result | vs midpoint |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2026 | $46.0M–$51.0M (Nov 5, 2026) | — | to be reported | — |
| FY2026 | $185M–$190M (Nov 5, 2026) | — | to be reported | — |
Tax rate
Every guided period is still to be reported.
| Period | Guided (and how it moved) | Reported | Result | vs midpoint |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | 30.0% (May 6, 2026) → reaffirmed 30.0% (Aug 6, 2026) → lowered 28.0% (Nov 5, 2026) | — | to be reported | — |
Capital expenditures
Every guided period is still to be reported.
| Period | Guided (and how it moved) | Reported | Result | vs midpoint |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | $138M–$162M (May 6, 2026) → lowered $135M–$145M (Aug 6, 2026) → raised $140M–$150M (Nov 5, 2026) | — | to be reported | — |
Adjusted EBITDA
The guide is on an adjusted basis that the GAAP statements do not show, so there is no reported figure to hold it to.
| Period | Guided (and how it moved) | Reported | Result | vs midpoint |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2026 | $137M–$142M (Aug 6, 2026) → raised $149M–$154M (Nov 5, 2026) | — | to be reported | — |
| Q3 2026 | $140M–$145M (Aug 6, 2026) | — | — | — |
| Q2 2026 | $130M–$135M (May 6, 2026) | — | — | — |
| FY2026 | $525M–$545M (May 6, 2026) → raised $550M–$560M (Aug 6, 2026) → raised $568M–$573M (Nov 5, 2026) | — | to be reported | — |
The latest quarter
GEO Group, Q3 2026: revenue $761M (+12% year over year), operating margin 13.5%, net earnings $49.2M, operating cash flow $209M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Does GEO Group beat its guidance?
GEO Group gave guidance in 3 earnings releases on file since May 6, 2026. Of 2 guided periods since reported, it met or beat its own guidance twice (100%). Revenue: 2 of 2, on average -0.4% against the guided midpoint.
How often does GEO Group raise guidance?
Its earnings releases raised guidance 3 times and lowered it once since May 6, 2026.
Each guided period is held to the last guidance given before its figures were reported; a single figure counts as in line within 1% (0.25 pts for a rate). Reported figures are GAAP, from the company's filings; adjusted guidance shows its moves only.