Filing Flows › GEO Group (GEO) › Guidance & outlook
GEO Group (GEO) guidance and outlook
GEO Group (GEO) raised some and lowered other parts of its guidance on Nov 5, 2026: Revenue $3.0B for FY2026; Net income $726M–$730M for FY2026; Net income $185M–$190M for FY2026; EBITDA $568M–$573M for FY2026. GEO Group's 10-Q filed Nov 6, 2026 makes 28 forward-looking statements.
Guidance and outlook
Latest guidance
| Metric | Period | Range | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | FY2026 | $3.0B | reaffirmed |
| Net income | FY2026 | $726M–$730M | raised |
| Net income | FY2026 | $185M–$190M | raised |
| EBITDA | FY2026 | $568M–$573M | raised |
| Net income | Q4 2026 | $591M–$596M | raised |
| Net income | Q4 2026 | $46.0M–$51.0M | raised |
| Revenue | Q4 2026 | $777M–$827M | raised |
| EBITDA | Q4 2026 | $149M–$154M | raised |
| Tax rate | FY2026 | 28% | lowered |
| Capital expenditures | FY2026 | $140M–$150M | raised |
From the earnings release filed Nov 5, 2026 (8-K on EDGAR).
Forward-looking statements, 10-Q filed Nov 6, 2026
- Statements other than statements of historical facts included in this report, including, without limitation, statements regarding our future financial position, business strategy, budgets, projected costs and plans and objectives of management for future operations, legal proceedings and potential steps to address our future debt maturities are “forward-looking” statements.
- our ability to accurately project the size and growth of public-private partnerships for secure services in the U.S. and internationally and our ability to capitalize on opportunities for public-private partnerships;
- our ability to successfully respond to any challenges or concerns that our government customers may raise regarding their use of public-private partnerships for secure services, including finding other government customers or alternative uses for facilities where a government customer has discontinued or announced that a contract with us will be discontinued;
- our ability to raise new project development capital given the often short-term nature of the customers’ commitment to use newly developed facilities;
- our ability to deleverage and repay, refinance or otherwise address our debt maturities in an amount or on the timeline we expect, or at all;
- the Unsecured Notes and the guarantees on the Unsecured Notes will be effectively subordinated to our and the guarantors' senior secured indebtedness and structurally subordinated to the indebtedness of our subsidiaries that do not guarantee the Unsecured Notes;
- from time to time, we may not have a management contract with a client to operate existing beds at a facility or new beds at a facility that we are expanding, and we cannot assure you that such a contract will be obtained.
- If our suppliers cannot provide the components or services we require and with such quality and at such cost as we expect, our ability to market and sell our electronic monitoring products and services could be harmed;
- as a result of our acquisitions, we have recorded and will continue to record a significant amount of goodwill and other intangible assets.
- our ability to execute on the Share Repurchase Program on the anticipated timeline;
- We develop new facilities based on contract awards, using our project development expertise and experience to design, construct and finance what we believe are state-of-the-art facilities.
- we develop new facilities, using our project development experience to design, construct and finance what we believe are state-of-the-art facilities;
GEO Group's latest quarter
GEO Group, Q3 2026: revenue $761M (+12% year over year), operating margin 13.5%, net earnings $49.2M, operating cash flow $209M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Did GEO Group raise or lower its guidance?
GEO Group (GEO) raised some and lowered other parts of its guidance on Nov 5, 2026: Revenue $3.0B for FY2026; Net income $726M–$730M for FY2026; Net income $185M–$190M for FY2026; EBITDA $568M–$573M for FY2026.
What does GEO Group expect?
Statements other than statements of historical facts included in this report, including, without limitation, statements regarding our future financial position, business strategy, budgets, projected costs and plans and objectives of management for future operations, legal proceedings and potential steps to address our future debt maturities are “forward-looking” statements. our ability to accurately project the size and growth of public-private partnerships for secure services in the U.S. and internationally and our ability to capitalize on opportunities for public-private partnerships; our ab
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.