Filing Flows › GEO Group (GEO) › Takeover & LBO
Is GEO Group (GEO) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($37.08 a share) would return about 6% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $24.85 a share (−13% against today's $28.52). Historically 4.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.93× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $37.08 | today's $28.52 plus 30% |
| × shares | 132.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $4.9B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $1.7B | |
| − Cash | $216M | |
| + Other claims | −$1.8M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $6.3B | 12.4× EBITDA of $514M |
| Fees | $127M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $2.8B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $3.6B | 56% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $3.1B | $555M | $216M | $139M | $2.7B |
| Year 2 | $3.4B | $592M | $205M | $170M | $2.5B |
| Year 3 | $3.5B | $625M | $192M | $200M | $2.3B |
| Year 4 | $3.7B | $651M | $177M | $229M | $2.1B |
| Year 5 | $3.8B | $671M | $160M | $257M | $1.8B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 10.2× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $6.8B | |
| − Debt left | $1.8B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $5.0B | |
| Money multiple | 1.37× | on $3.6B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 6.4% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $28.52; the IRR reaches 20% at $24.85 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $31.37 | 11.6% |
| 20% | $34.22 | 8.8% |
| 30% | $37.08 | 6.4% |
| 40% | $39.93 | 4.3% |
| 50% | $42.78 | 2.4% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $2.9B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $514M | 17.7% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $136M | |
| Capital spending | $111M | |
| Debt | $1.7B | |
| Cash | $216M | |
| Share price | $28.52 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 30% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, GEO Group would cost about $39.93 a share, $5.3B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $32.71 | $4.3B |
| Median | 40% | $39.93 | $5.3B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $45.69 | $6.0B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.93× the average). Its figures put it in decile 5 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
GEO Group's latest quarter
GEO Group, Q3 2026: revenue $761M (+12% year over year), operating margin 13.5%, net earnings $49.2M, operating cash flow $209M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is GEO Group being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy GEO Group?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($37.08 a share) would return about 6% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $24.85 a share (−13% against today's $28.52).
What would a takeover of GEO Group cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, GEO Group would cost about $39.93 a share, $5.3B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.