Filing Flows › GEO Group (GEO) › Stock forecast & fair value
GEO Group (GEO) stock forecast and fair value
GEO Group (GEO) trades at $27.80. 4 analysts' median price target is $40.00 (+44%), from $36.00 to $40.00. Across 23 valuation methods the middle fair value is $25.97 (-7%); the DCF says $26.70.
Fair value by method
| Method | Low | Point | High | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regime-switching Monte Carlo 10th–90th | $13.80 | $28.31 | $59.47 | +2% |
| DCF — Monte Carlo 10th–90th percentile | $16.15 | $26.70 | $39.08 | -4% |
| P/E vs peers | $16.65 | $17.92 | $20.81 | -36% |
| P/E vs peers, weighted | $12.44 | $16.17 | $18.53 | -42% |
| EV/EBITDA vs peers | $28.31 | $43.13 | $61.62 | +55% |
| EV/EBITDA vs peers, weighted | $37.86 | $52.08 | $73.93 | +87% |
| EV/Sales vs peers | $4.06 | $10.15 | $22.41 | -64% |
| EV/Sales vs peers, weighted | $8.94 | $18.58 | $22.12 | -33% |
| Residual income | $11.20 | $11.61 | $12.04 | -58% |
| Analysts' price targets | $36.00 | $39.00 | $40.00 | +40% |
GEO Group's latest quarter
GEO Group, Q3 2026: revenue $761M (+12% year over year), operating margin 13.5%, net earnings $49.2M, operating cash flow $209M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
What is the price target for GEO stock?
The median of 4 analysts' 12-month targets is $40.00, +44% from $27.80; the range is $36.00 to $40.00. The average rating is strong buy.
What is GEO Group's fair value?
The fair-value methods on Filing Flows (DCF, Monte Carlo, peer multiples and others) put it between $8.82 and $52.08, with a middle value of $25.97 against a price of $27.80. Each method's assumptions are on the page.
Does GEO Group usually beat earnings estimates?
It beat the consensus EPS estimate in 80% of the quarters on record.
Is GEO stock a buy?
Filing Flows does not give advice. It shows what analysts expect, what each valuation method implies and the figures behind them, read from SEC filings, so you can judge for yourself.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.