Filing Flows › Alphabet (GOOGL) › Takeover & LBO
Is Alphabet (GOOGL) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($367.34 a share) would return a loss of about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. At $4.33T it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 2.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.5× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $367.34 | today's $282.57 plus 30% |
| × shares | 12,368.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $4.54T | |
| + Debt refinanced | $49.1B | |
| − Cash | $265.1B | |
| = Enterprise value | $4.33T | 23.3× EBITDA of $185.9B |
| Fees | $86.5B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.02T | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $3.39T | 77% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $508.8B | $200.8B | $78.2B | −$70.3B | $1.09T |
| Year 2 | $543.1B | $214.3B | $83.6B | −$74.5B | $1.17T |
| Year 3 | $573.0B | $226.1B | $89.3B | −$78.9B | $1.25T |
| Year 4 | $597.4B | $235.7B | $95.3B | −$83.4B | $1.33T |
| Year 5 | $615.3B | $242.8B | $101.7B | −$88.1B | $1.42T |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 17.6× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $4.28T | |
| − Debt left | $1.42T | |
| = Buyer's equity | $2.86T | |
| Money multiple | 0.84× | on $3.39T put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −3.3% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $282.57.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $310.83 | 1.4% |
| 20% | $339.08 | −1.1% |
| 30% | $367.34 | −3.3% |
| 40% | $395.60 | −5.2% |
| 50% | $423.86 | −6.9% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $471.1B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $185.9B | 39.5% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $28.9B | |
| Capital spending | $159.8B | |
| Debt | $49.1B | |
| Cash | $265.1B | |
| Share price | $282.57 | on Nov 5, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 18% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Alphabet would cost about $367.34 a share, $4.54T for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $316.48 | $3.91T |
| Median | 30% | $367.34 | $4.54T |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $370.17 | $4.58T |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.5× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Alphabet's latest quarter
Alphabet, Q3 2026: revenue $127.6B (+25% year over year), operating margin 31.8%, net earnings $26.5B, operating cash flow $42.3B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Alphabet being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Alphabet?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($367.34 a share) would return a loss of about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. At $4.33T it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Alphabet cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Alphabet would cost about $367.34 a share, $4.54T for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.