Filing Flows › Granite Construction (GVA) › Takeover & LBO
Is Granite Construction (GVA) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($157.40 a share) would return about 5% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $101.33 a share (−16% against today's $121.08). Historically 3.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.69× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $157.40 | today's $121.08 plus 30% |
| × shares | 46.3 million | |
| = Equity value | $7.3B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $1.6B | |
| − Cash | $512M | |
| + Other claims | $50.7M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $8.4B | 14.4× EBITDA of $584M |
| Fees | $168M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $3.2B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $5.3B | 62% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $5.7B | $630M | $246M | $153M | $3.1B |
| Year 2 | $6.1B | $673M | $234M | $192M | $2.9B |
| Year 3 | $6.4B | $710M | $219M | $231M | $2.6B |
| Year 4 | $6.7B | $740M | $201M | $270M | $2.4B |
| Year 5 | $6.9B | $762M | $181M | $307M | $2.1B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 11.5× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $8.7B | |
| − Debt left | $2.1B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $6.7B | |
| Money multiple | 1.25× | on $5.3B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 4.6% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $121.08; the IRR reaches 20% at $101.33 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $133.19 | 9.8% |
| 20% | $145.30 | 7.0% |
| 30% | $157.40 | 4.6% |
| 40% | $169.51 | 2.5% |
| 50% | $181.62 | 0.6% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $5.3B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $584M | 11.0% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $189M | |
| Capital spending | $140M | |
| Debt | $1.6B | |
| Cash | $512M | |
| Share price | $121.08 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Granite Construction would cost about $169.51 a share, $7.8B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $138.88 | $6.4B |
| Median | 40% | $169.51 | $7.8B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $193.97 | $9.0B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.69× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Granite Construction's latest quarter
Granite Construction, Q3 2026: revenue $1.8B (+23% year over year), operating margin 12.7%, net earnings $3.2M, operating cash flow $263M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Granite Construction being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Granite Construction?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($157.40 a share) would return about 5% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $101.33 a share (−16% against today's $121.08).
What would a takeover of Granite Construction cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Granite Construction would cost about $169.51 a share, $7.8B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.