Filing Flows › Warrior MET Coal (HCC) › Takeover & LBO
Is Warrior MET Coal (HCC) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($111.76 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $111.76 | today's $85.97 plus 30% |
| × shares | 52.9 million | |
| = Equity value | $5.9B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $155M | |
| − Cash | $437M | |
| = Enterprise value | $5.6B | 11.4× EBITDA of $494M |
| Fees | $113M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $2.7B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $3.0B | 53% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $2.0B | $534M | $208M | $53.6M | $2.7B |
| Year 2 | $2.1B | $570M | $204M | $75.6M | $2.6B |
| Year 3 | $2.3B | $601M | $198M | $97.2M | $2.5B |
| Year 4 | $2.4B | $627M | $191M | $118M | $2.4B |
| Year 5 | $2.4B | $646M | $182M | $137M | $2.2B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 8.6× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $5.6B | |
| − Debt left | $2.2B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $3.3B | |
| Money multiple | 1.10× | on $3.0B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 2.0% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $85.97.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $94.57 | 9.7% |
| 20% | $103.16 | 5.4% |
| 30% | $111.76 | 2.0% |
| 40% | $120.36 | −0.9% |
| 50% | $128.95 | −3.3% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.9B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $494M | 26.6% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $235M | |
| Capital spending | $230M | |
| Debt | $155M | |
| Cash | $437M | |
| Share price | $85.97 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Warrior MET Coal would cost about $113.91 a share, $6.0B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $103.16 | $5.5B |
| Median | 32.5% | $113.91 | $6.0B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $130.50 | $6.9B |
Warrior MET Coal's latest quarter
Warrior MET Coal, Q3 2026: revenue $508M (+55% year over year), operating margin 10.0%, net earnings $49.3M, operating cash flow $166M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Warrior MET Coal being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Warrior MET Coal?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($111.76 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Warrior MET Coal cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Warrior MET Coal would cost about $113.91 a share, $6.0B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.