Filing Flows › Herbalife (HLF) › Takeover & LBO
Is Herbalife (HLF) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($19.73 a share) would return about 21% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $20.38 a share (34% against today's $15.18). Historically 4.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.96× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $19.73 | today's $15.18 plus 30% |
| × shares | 107.3 million | |
| = Equity value | $2.1B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $1.9B | |
| − Cash | $409M | |
| + Other claims | $5.9M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $3.6B | 5.8× EBITDA of $626M |
| Fees | $72.9M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $2.4B | 3.8× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $1.3B | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $5.6B | $665M | $181M | $289M | $2.1B |
| Year 2 | $5.9B | $702M | $159M | $332M | $1.7B |
| Year 3 | $6.2B | $735M | $134M | $376M | $1.4B |
| Year 4 | $6.4B | $763M | $105M | $420M | $951M |
| Year 5 | $6.6B | $786M | $72.7M | $463M | $487M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 5.0× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $4.0B | |
| − Debt left | $487M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $3.5B | |
| Money multiple | 2.58× | on $1.3B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 20.9% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $15.18; the IRR reaches 20% at $20.38 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $16.70 | 25.0% |
| 20% | $18.22 | 22.9% |
| 30% | $19.73 | 20.9% |
| 40% | $21.25 | 18.8% |
| 50% | $22.77 | 16.8% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $5.3B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $626M | 11.9% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $121M | |
| Capital spending | $59.2M | |
| Debt | $1.9B | |
| Cash | $409M | |
| Share price | $15.18 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 6.4% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 28% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Herbalife would cost about $20.49 a share, $2.2B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 22% | $18.52 | $2.0B |
| Median | 35% | $20.49 | $2.2B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 45% | $22.01 | $2.4B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.96× the average). Its figures put it in decile 6 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Herbalife's latest quarter
Herbalife, Q3 2026: revenue $1.4B (+6% year over year), operating margin 10.3%, net earnings $58.8M, operating cash flow $151M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Herbalife being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Herbalife?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($19.73 a share) would return about 21% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $20.38 a share (34% against today's $15.18).
What would a takeover of Herbalife cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Herbalife would cost about $20.49 a share, $2.2B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.