Filing Flows › HNI (HNI) › Takeover & LBO
Is HNI (HNI) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($61.65 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $36.31 a share (−23% against today's $47.42). Historically 6.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.35× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $61.65 | today's $47.42 plus 30% |
| × shares | 72.5 million | |
| = Equity value | $4.5B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $1.4B | |
| − Cash | $114M | |
| + Other claims | $6.4M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $5.7B | 14.1× EBITDA of $405M |
| Fees | $114M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $2.2B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $3.6B | 62% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $5.4B | $409M | $170M | $233M | $2.0B |
| Year 2 | $5.4B | $415M | $152M | $251M | $1.7B |
| Year 3 | $5.5B | $424M | $133M | $269M | $1.5B |
| Year 4 | $5.7B | $434M | $113M | $290M | $1.2B |
| Year 5 | $5.9B | $447M | $90.6M | $313M | $871M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 11.6× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $5.2B | |
| − Debt left | $871M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $4.3B | |
| Money multiple | 1.19× | on $3.6B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 3.6% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $47.42; the IRR reaches 20% at $36.31 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $52.17 | 8.2% |
| 20% | $56.91 | 5.8% |
| 30% | $61.65 | 3.6% |
| 40% | $66.39 | 1.7% |
| 50% | $71.14 | 0.0% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $5.3B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $405M | 7.6% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $244M | |
| Debt | $1.4B | |
| Cash | $114M | |
| Share price | $47.42 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 1.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 30% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, HNI would cost about $62.84 a share, $4.6B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $56.91 | $4.1B |
| Median | 32.5% | $62.84 | $4.6B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $71.99 | $5.2B |
The odds, from history
Historically 6.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.35× the average). Its figures put it in decile 9 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
HNI's latest quarter
HNI, Q3 2026: revenue $1.6B (+133% year over year), operating margin 8.6%, net earnings $90.0M, operating cash flow $195M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is HNI being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy HNI?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($61.65 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $36.31 a share (−23% against today's $47.42).
What would a takeover of HNI cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, HNI would cost about $62.84 a share, $4.6B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.