Filing Flows › HP (HPQ) › Takeover & LBO
Is HP (HPQ) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($38.27 a share) would return about 9% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $30.22 a share (3% against today's $29.44). Historically 3.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.6× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $38.27 | today's $29.44 plus 30% |
| × shares | 927.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $35.5B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $9.7B | |
| − Cash | $4.2B | |
| = Enterprise value | $41.0B | 9.9× EBITDA of $4.2B |
| Fees | $821M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $22.8B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $19.0B | 45% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $63.9B | $4.5B | $1.7B | $1.2B | $21.6B |
| Year 2 | $68.2B | $4.8B | $1.7B | $1.5B | $20.1B |
| Year 3 | $72.0B | $5.1B | $1.5B | $1.9B | $18.2B |
| Year 4 | $75.0B | $5.3B | $1.4B | $2.2B | $16.0B |
| Year 5 | $77.3B | $5.4B | $1.2B | $2.6B | $13.4B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 7.9× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $42.9B | |
| − Debt left | $13.4B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $29.5B | |
| Money multiple | 1.55× | on $19.0B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 9.2% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $29.44; the IRR reaches 20% at $30.22 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $32.38 | 17.0% |
| 20% | $35.33 | 12.7% |
| 30% | $38.27 | 9.2% |
| 40% | $41.22 | 6.2% |
| 50% | $44.16 | 3.7% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $59.2B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $4.2B | 7.0% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $930M | |
| Capital spending | $787M | |
| Debt | $9.7B | |
| Cash | $4.2B | |
| Share price | $29.44 | on Nov 5, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, HP would cost about $38.27 a share, $35.5B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $32.97 | $30.6B |
| Median | 30% | $38.27 | $35.5B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $38.57 | $35.8B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.6× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
HP's latest quarter
HP, Q3 FY26: revenue $15.7B (+12% year over year), operating margin 5.7%, net earnings $661M, operating cash flow $1.7B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is HP being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy HP?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($38.27 a share) would return about 9% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $30.22 a share (3% against today's $29.44).
What would a takeover of HP cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, HP would cost about $38.27 a share, $35.5B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.