Filing Flows › Hershey (HSY) › Takeover & LBO
Is Hershey (HSY) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($232.35 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $142.40 a share (−20% against today's $178.73). Historically 2.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.52× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $232.35 | today's $178.73 plus 30% |
| × shares | 201.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $46.7B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $5.1B | |
| − Cash | $677M | |
| = Enterprise value | $51.1B | 16.6× EBITDA of $3.1B |
| Fees | $1.0B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $17.0B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $35.2B | 67% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $13.1B | $3.3B | $1.3B | $1.1B | $15.8B |
| Year 2 | $13.8B | $3.5B | $1.2B | $1.3B | $14.5B |
| Year 3 | $14.5B | $3.6B | $1.1B | $1.5B | $13.0B |
| Year 4 | $15.1B | $3.8B | $995M | $1.7B | $11.3B |
| Year 5 | $15.5B | $3.9B | $865M | $1.9B | $9.4B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 13.1× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $51.1B | |
| − Debt left | $9.4B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $41.7B | |
| Money multiple | 1.19× | on $35.2B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 3.5% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $178.73; the IRR reaches 20% at $142.40 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $196.60 | 8.4% |
| 20% | $214.48 | 5.8% |
| 30% | $232.35 | 3.5% |
| 40% | $250.22 | 1.4% |
| 50% | $268.09 | −0.4% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $12.3B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $3.1B | 25.2% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $538M | |
| Capital spending | $443M | |
| Debt | $5.1B | |
| Cash | $677M | |
| Share price | $178.73 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 6.7% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 23% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Hershey would cost about $236.82 a share, $47.6B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $214.48 | $43.1B |
| Median | 32.5% | $236.82 | $47.6B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $271.31 | $54.5B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.52× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Hershey's latest quarter
Hershey, Q3 2026: revenue $3.3B (+3% year over year), operating margin 25.0%, net earnings $581M, operating cash flow $751M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Hershey being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Hershey?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($232.35 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $142.40 a share (−20% against today's $178.73).
What would a takeover of Hershey cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Hershey would cost about $236.82 a share, $47.6B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.