Filing Flows › Hubbell (HUBB) › Takeover & LBO
Is Hubbell (HUBB) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($555.83 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $307.92 a share (−28% against today's $427.56). Historically 3.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.61× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $555.83 | today's $427.56 plus 30% |
| × shares | 53.1 million | |
| = Equity value | $29.5B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $5.1B | |
| − Cash | $355M | |
| + Other claims | $12.2M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $34.3B | 21.2× EBITDA of $1.6B |
| Fees | $686M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $8.9B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $26.1B | 75% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $7.1B | $1.7B | $679M | $655M | $8.2B |
| Year 2 | $7.6B | $1.9B | $629M | $782M | $7.4B |
| Year 3 | $8.0B | $2.0B | $569M | $908M | $6.5B |
| Year 4 | $8.4B | $2.0B | $500M | $1.0B | $5.5B |
| Year 5 | $8.6B | $2.1B | $421M | $1.1B | $4.4B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 17.0× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $35.9B | |
| − Debt left | $4.4B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $31.5B | |
| Money multiple | 1.21× | on $26.1B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 3.9% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $427.56; the IRR reaches 20% at $307.92 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $470.32 | 8.0% |
| 20% | $513.07 | 5.8% |
| 30% | $555.83 | 3.9% |
| 40% | $598.58 | 2.1% |
| 50% | $641.34 | 0.5% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $6.6B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $1.6B | 24.5% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $282M | |
| Capital spending | $178M | |
| Debt | $5.1B | |
| Cash | $355M | |
| Share price | $427.56 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 22% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Hubbell would cost about $555.83 a share, $29.5B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $478.87 | $25.4B |
| Median | 30% | $555.83 | $29.5B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $560.10 | $29.7B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.61× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Hubbell's latest quarter
Hubbell, Q3 2026: revenue $1.9B (+25% year over year), operating margin 21.8%, net earnings $262M, operating cash flow $323M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Hubbell being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Hubbell?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($555.83 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $307.92 a share (−28% against today's $427.56).
What would a takeover of Hubbell cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Hubbell would cost about $555.83 a share, $29.5B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.