Filing Flows › Hub Group (HUBG) › Takeover & LBO
Is Hub Group (HUBG) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($34.72 a share) would return about 6% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $25.96 a share (−3% against today's $26.71).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $34.72 | today's $26.71 plus 30% |
| × shares | 61.2 million | |
| = Equity value | $2.1B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $255M | |
| − Cash | $120M | |
| + Other claims | $53.1M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $2.3B | 7.0× EBITDA of $331M |
| Fees | $46.2M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.5B | 4.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $855M | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $3.6B | $321M | $115M | $155M | $1.3B |
| Year 2 | $3.6B | $316M | $103M | $160M | $1.2B |
| Year 3 | $3.6B | $316M | $90.8M | $170M | $1.0B |
| Year 4 | $3.6B | $321M | $77.8M | $178M | $839M |
| Year 5 | $3.7B | $330M | $64.2M | $190M | $649M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 5.5× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $1.8B | |
| − Debt left | $649M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $1.2B | |
| Money multiple | 1.37× | on $855M put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 6.5% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $26.71; the IRR reaches 20% at $25.96 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $29.38 | 14.6% |
| 20% | $32.05 | 10.5% |
| 30% | $34.72 | 6.5% |
| 40% | $37.39 | 2.4% |
| 50% | $40.06 | −1.9% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $3.7B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $331M | 8.9% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $188M | |
| Capital spending | $46.8M | |
| Debt | $255M | |
| Cash | $120M | |
| Share price | $26.71 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows -3.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 23% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Hub Group would cost about $37.39 a share, $2.3B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $30.64 | $1.9B |
| Median | 40% | $37.39 | $2.3B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $42.79 | $2.6B |
Hub Group's latest quarter
Hub Group, Q3 2025: revenue $934M (-5% year over year), operating margin 4.2%, net earnings $28.9M, operating cash flow $28.1M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Hub Group being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Hub Group?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($34.72 a share) would return about 6% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $25.96 a share (−3% against today's $26.71).
What would a takeover of Hub Group cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Hub Group would cost about $37.39 a share, $2.3B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.