Filing Flows › Hawkins (HWKN) › Takeover & LBO
Is Hawkins (HWKN) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($172.02 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $95.98 a share (−27% against today's $132.32). Historically 4.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.94× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $172.02 | today's $132.32 plus 30% |
| × shares | 20.8 million | |
| = Equity value | $3.6B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $229M | |
| − Cash | $7.1M | |
| = Enterprise value | $3.8B | 20.9× EBITDA of $182M |
| Fees | $75.9M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.0B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $2.9B | 74% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.2B | $196M | $76.5M | $33.2M | $967M |
| Year 2 | $1.3B | $210M | $74.0M | $42.4M | $924M |
| Year 3 | $1.4B | $221M | $70.7M | $51.5M | $873M |
| Year 4 | $1.4B | $231M | $66.8M | $60.4M | $813M |
| Year 5 | $1.5B | $237M | $62.2M | $68.7M | $744M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 16.3× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $3.9B | |
| − Debt left | $744M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $3.1B | |
| Money multiple | 1.09× | on $2.9B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 1.8% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $132.32; the IRR reaches 20% at $95.98 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $145.55 | 6.3% |
| 20% | $158.78 | 3.9% |
| 30% | $172.02 | 1.8% |
| 40% | $185.25 | −0.1% |
| 50% | $198.48 | −1.8% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.1B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $182M | 16.0% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $55.2M | |
| Capital spending | $56.3M | |
| Debt | $229M | |
| Cash | $7.1M | |
| Share price | $132.32 | on Oct 23, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 28% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Hawkins would cost about $185.25 a share, $3.9B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $151.77 | $3.2B |
| Median | 40% | $185.25 | $3.9B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $211.98 | $4.4B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.94× the average). Its figures put it in decile 5 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Hawkins' latest quarter
Hawkins, Q2 FY27: revenue $314M (+12% year over year), operating margin 13.4%, net earnings $27.8M, operating cash flow $40.3M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Hawkins being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Hawkins?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($172.02 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $95.98 a share (−27% against today's $132.32).
What would a takeover of Hawkins cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Hawkins would cost about $185.25 a share, $3.9B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.