Filing Flows › Incyte (INCY) › Takeover & LBO
Is Incyte (INCY) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($155.09 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 2.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.5× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $155.09 | today's $119.30 plus 30% |
| × shares | 203.2 million | |
| = Equity value | $31.5B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $3.3B | |
| = Enterprise value | $28.2B | 39.0× EBITDA of $725M |
| Fees | $565M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $4.0B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $24.8B | 86% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $6.5B | $783M | $305M | $318M | $3.7B |
| Year 2 | $6.9B | $836M | $281M | $379M | $3.3B |
| Year 3 | $7.3B | $882M | $252M | $439M | $2.9B |
| Year 4 | $7.6B | $919M | $218M | $497M | $2.4B |
| Year 5 | $7.9B | $947M | $180M | $552M | $1.8B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 28.9× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $27.4B | |
| − Debt left | $1.8B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $25.6B | |
| Money multiple | 1.03× | on $24.8B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 0.6% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $119.30.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $131.23 | 5.2% |
| 20% | $143.16 | 2.7% |
| 30% | $155.09 | 0.6% |
| 40% | $167.02 | −1.3% |
| 50% | $178.95 | −3.0% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $6.0B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $725M | 12.1% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $98.4M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $3.3B | |
| Share price | $119.30 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 30% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Incyte would cost about $167.02 a share, $33.9B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $136.84 | $27.8B |
| Median | 40% | $167.02 | $33.9B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $191.12 | $38.8B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.5× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Incyte's latest quarter
Incyte, Q3 2026: revenue $1.6B (+14% year over year), operating margin -45.5%, net loss $785M, operating cash flow −$675M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Incyte being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Incyte?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($155.09 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Incyte cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Incyte would cost about $167.02 a share, $33.9B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.