Filing Flows › Companies › Inspire Medical Systems › Analysis traps
Inspire Medical Systems (INSP): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q3 2026, to Sep 30, 2026, filed Nov 2, 2026; rules v1.1
Inspire Medical Systems (INSP): 0 rules of 10 triggered on the filings to Sep 30, 2026. 1 to review; 2 with insufficient data; 4 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
A precise DCF value = the true value To review · confidence high
The DCF's point value is 14.36 a share (price 68.86); 108% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from 3.28 to 25.43; across every method the research ran the range is -112 to 1,481. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
Innocent reading: A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Not triggered confidence high
Free cash flow did not rise ($91M → $78M): the trap does not arise.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year before | FY2024 |
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Operating cash flow, year before | $130M |
| Operating cash flow | $117M |
| Capex, year before | $39M |
| Capex | $38M |
| Free cash flow, year before | $91M |
| Free cash flow | $78M |
| Change in FCF | −$13M |
| Change in capex | −$624K |
| Working capital: change in its cash contribution | −$50M |
FCF = operating cash flow − cash capex; ΔFCF = ΔOCF − ΔCapEx; the working-capital part is the change in the cash-bridge items (receivables, inventory, payables, accruals), with the sign of the cash flow statement
Source: FY2025 (cash flow statement, fiscal year) · FY2024 (cash flow statement, fiscal year before)
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Not triggered confidence high
Stock compensation is 14.3% of revenue, but buybacks of $175M covered it (1.3×) and the diluted share count fell 2.6%: the dilution has been paid for in cash.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Stock compensation | $130M |
| Revenue | $912M |
| SBC / revenue | +14.3% |
| Buybacks | $175M |
| Buybacks / SBC | 1.3 |
| Diluted shares, year before | 30.5M shares |
| Diluted shares | 29.8M shares |
| Diluted shares: change | -2.6% |
SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section
Source: FY2025 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Not triggered confidence medium
Receivables grew -3% against revenue -8% in Q3 2026; DSO 46 against a median of 47: collections are keeping pace with sales.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 2026 |
| Revenue, year over year | -7.9% |
| Receivables, year over year | -3.0% |
| Quarter before | Q2 2026 |
| Revenue y/y, quarter before | -7.6% |
| Receivables y/y, quarter before | -24.9% |
| Days sales outstanding | 46.3 |
| DSO, median of eight quarters | 47.3 |
| Receivables | $105M |
| Revenue | $207M |
receivables and revenue against the same quarter a year earlier; DSO = receivables / quarterly revenue × days, against the median of the eight quarters before
Source: Q3 2026 (receivables and revenue) · Q3 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Insufficient data
no reconciliation table read from the releases yet and fewer than three quarters with both an adjusted and a GAAP EPS
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Insufficient data
no debt figure could be read from the balance sheet (the filing may tag it in other lines)
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not applicable
a loss in one of the quarters: EPS growth has no meaning
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued Not applicable
a loss on a trailing or mid-cycle basis: the P/E has no meaning
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value To review confidence high
The DCF's point value is 14.36 a share (price 68.86); 108% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from 3.28 to 25.43; across every method the research ran the range is -112 to 1,481. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
The figures and how they are read
| dcf value | 14.36 |
| price | 68.86 |
| terminal value share | +108.1% |
| swing by input | Operating margin / ±3 pts / 3.28 / 25.43; Capex (share of revenue) / ±1 pt / 13.15 / 15.56; WACC / ±1 pt / 13.59 / 15.43; Revenue growth (each year) / ±5 pts / 13.91 / 14.91 |
| range all methods | -112.44; 1480.75 |
the DCF's point value against the share of it that is the terminal value and the value at each input moved by one step (growth ±5 pts, WACC ±1 pt, margin ±3 pts …); the range across every method the research ran
Source: 2026-11-08 (valuation research)
What would explain it innocently
- A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary
- The inputs that matter most are themselves well known (a regulated return, a long contract)
What to look for in the filing
- Which input you believe differs from the research's and why
- What the price implies for growth (the reverse DCF on the fair-value page)
What would show the trap does not apply
- The DCF's value is robust to the terminal growth and discount rate (the range's low end is still above the price)
- The company's cash flows over the next three years track the DCF's early years
Look again: next filing.
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → Inspire Medical Systems: cash flow → Earnings quality score →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.