Filing Flows › Intel (INTC) › Takeover & LBO
Is Intel (INTC) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($67.92 a share) would return a loss of about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $32.35 a share (−38% against today's $52.25). At $369.7B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 3.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.65× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $67.92 | today's $52.25 plus 30% |
| × shares | 5,307.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $360.5B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $46.6B | |
| − Cash | $54.0B | |
| + Other claims | $16.6B | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $369.7B | 25.7× EBITDA of $14.4B |
| Fees | $7.4B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $79.1B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $298.0B | 79% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $64.7B | $15.5B | $6.1B | −$5.8B | $84.9B |
| Year 2 | $69.0B | $16.6B | $6.5B | −$6.2B | $91.0B |
| Year 3 | $72.8B | $17.5B | $7.0B | −$6.5B | $97.6B |
| Year 4 | $75.9B | $18.2B | $7.5B | −$6.9B | $104.5B |
| Year 5 | $78.2B | $18.8B | $8.0B | −$7.3B | $111.8B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 19.9× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $374.2B | |
| − Debt left | $111.8B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $262.4B | |
| Money multiple | 0.88× | on $298.0B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −2.5% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $52.25; the IRR reaches 20% at $32.35 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $57.48 | 1.7% |
| 20% | $62.70 | −0.5% |
| 30% | $67.92 | −2.5% |
| 40% | $73.15 | −4.3% |
| 50% | $78.38 | −5.8% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $59.9B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $14.4B | 24.0% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $12.6B | |
| Capital spending | $13.7B | |
| Debt | $46.6B | |
| Cash | $54.0B | |
| Share price | $52.25 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Intel would cost about $67.92 a share, $360.5B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $58.52 | $310.6B |
| Median | 30% | $67.92 | $360.5B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $68.45 | $363.3B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.65× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Intel's latest quarter
Intel, Q3 2026: revenue $16.5B (+21% year over year), operating margin 15.3%, net earnings $3.3B, operating cash flow $5.1B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Intel being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Intel?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($67.92 a share) would return a loss of about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $32.35 a share (−38% against today's $52.25). At $369.7B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Intel cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Intel would cost about $67.92 a share, $360.5B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.