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ST JOE (JOE): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q3 2026, to Sep 30, 2026, filed Oct 28, 2026; rules v1.1
ST JOE (JOE): 0 rules of 10 triggered on the filings to Sep 30, 2026. 1 to review; 1 with insufficient data; 5 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
A precise DCF value = the true value To review · confidence high
The DCF's point value is 42.62 a share (price 64.86); 68% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving revenue growth (each year) by ±5 pts alone takes it from 34.10 to 52.73; across every method the research ran the range is -7 to 292. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
Innocent reading: A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Not applicable
a financial company: free cash flow after capex is not the measure of its business
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Not triggered confidence high
Stock compensation is 0.2% of revenue: small enough that adding it back changes little.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Stock compensation | $1M |
| Revenue | $513M |
| SBC / revenue | +0.2% |
| Buybacks | $40M |
| Buybacks / SBC | 32.7 |
| Diluted shares, year before | 58.3M shares |
| Diluted shares | 58.0M shares |
| Diluted shares: change | -0.7% |
SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section
Source: FY2025 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Not applicable
a financial company: receivables and DSO are not its working capital
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Insufficient data
no reconciliation table read from the releases yet and fewer than three quarters with both an adjusted and a GAAP EPS
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Not triggered confidence medium
$10M comes due within a year, 30.7× covered by cash and investments of $118M plus $184M of free cash flow.
The figures and how they are read
| Cash and investments | $118M |
| Debt | $362M |
| Net debt | $244M |
| Due within a year | $10M |
| Read from | the debt maturity table |
| Free cash flow, twelve months | $184M |
| Cash plus free cash flow | $302M |
| Coverage of what is due | 30.7 |
| Due in the second year | $68M |
| Balance sheet date | 2026-09-30 |
due within a year from the maturity table (else the current portion of debt), against cash and investments plus free cash flow over the last twelve months (zero if negative); no credit lines assumed
Source: FY2025 (debt maturities, cash and investments)
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not triggered confidence high
EPS fell 3% and net income fell 5% in Q3 2026; the share count fell 1.9%: EPS growth follows profit growth.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 2026 |
| Quarter before | Q3 2025 |
| EPS, year before | $0.67 |
| EPS | $0.65 |
| Net income, year before | $39M |
| Net income | $37M |
| Diluted shares, year before | 57.9M shares |
| Diluted shares | 56.8M shares |
| EPS growth | -2.7% |
| Net income growth | -4.6% |
| Diluted shares: change | -1.9% |
| eps from profit | -$0.03 |
| eps from share count | $0.01 |
EPS and net income against the same quarter a year earlier; the EPS bridge attributes the change to profit first, then to the share count (the order is fixed and disclosed)
Source: Q3 2026 (net income, diluted shares, EPS) · Q3 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued Not applicable
a financial company: J06 reads its cycle instead
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value To review confidence high
The DCF's point value is 42.62 a share (price 64.86); 68% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving revenue growth (each year) by ±5 pts alone takes it from 34.10 to 52.73; across every method the research ran the range is -7 to 292. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
The figures and how they are read
| dcf value | 42.62 |
| price | 64.86 |
| terminal value share | +67.7% |
| swing by input | Revenue growth (each year) / ±5 pts / 34.1 / 52.73; WACC / ±1 pt / 36.35 / 51.4; Operating margin / ±3 pts / 38.52 / 46.71; Tax rate / ±5 pts / 39.75 / 45.48 |
| range all methods | -7.25; 291.67 |
the DCF's point value against the share of it that is the terminal value and the value at each input moved by one step (growth ±5 pts, WACC ±1 pt, margin ±3 pts …); the range across every method the research ran
Source: 2026-11-08 (valuation research)
What would explain it innocently
- A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary
- The inputs that matter most are themselves well known (a regulated return, a long contract)
What to look for in the filing
- Which input you believe differs from the research's and why
- What the price implies for growth (the reverse DCF on the fair-value page)
What would show the trap does not apply
- The DCF's value is robust to the terminal growth and discount rate (the range's low end is still above the price)
- The company's cash flows over the next three years track the DCF's early years
Look again: next filing.
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → ST JOE: cash flow →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.