Filing Flows › Kirby (KEX) › Takeover & LBO
Is Kirby (KEX) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($187.11 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $122.54 a share (−15% against today's $143.93). Historically 3.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.61× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $187.11 | today's $143.93 plus 30% |
| × shares | 53.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $9.9B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $1.1B | |
| − Cash | $38.3M | |
| + Other claims | $2.6M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $11.0B | 13.9× EBITDA of $789M |
| Fees | $219M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $4.3B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $6.8B | 61% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $3.9B | $852M | $332M | $183M | $4.2B |
| Year 2 | $4.1B | $909M | $318M | $227M | $3.9B |
| Year 3 | $4.4B | $959M | $301M | $271M | $3.7B |
| Year 4 | $4.6B | $1.0B | $280M | $313M | $3.3B |
| Year 5 | $4.7B | $1.0B | $256M | $352M | $3.0B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 11.0× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $11.3B | |
| − Debt left | $3.0B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $8.3B | |
| Money multiple | 1.22× | on $6.8B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 4.0% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $143.93; the IRR reaches 20% at $122.54 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $158.32 | 9.5% |
| 20% | $172.72 | 6.6% |
| 30% | $187.11 | 4.0% |
| 40% | $201.50 | 1.8% |
| 50% | $215.90 | −0.2% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $3.6B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $789M | 21.9% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $278M | |
| Capital spending | $236M | |
| Debt | $1.1B | |
| Cash | $38.3M | |
| Share price | $143.93 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 24% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Kirby would cost about $201.50 a share, $10.7B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $165.09 | $8.8B |
| Median | 40% | $201.50 | $10.7B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $230.58 | $12.2B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.61× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Kirby's latest quarter
Kirby, Q3 2026: revenue $977M (+12% year over year), operating margin 15.4%, net earnings $111M, operating cash flow $143M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Kirby being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Kirby?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($187.11 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $122.54 a share (−15% against today's $143.93).
What would a takeover of Kirby cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Kirby would cost about $201.50 a share, $10.7B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.