Filing Flows › Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings (KNX) › Takeover & LBO
Is Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings (KNX) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($76.10 a share) would return about 10% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $62.76 a share (7% against today's $58.54). Historically 2.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.54× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $76.10 | today's $58.54 plus 30% |
| × shares | 163.3 million | |
| = Equity value | $12.4B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $232M | |
| − Cash | $254M | |
| + Other claims | $9.6M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $12.4B | 11.0× EBITDA of $1.1B |
| Fees | $248M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $6.2B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $6.5B | 51% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $8.6B | $1.2B | $474M | $676M | $5.5B |
| Year 2 | $9.1B | $1.3B | $423M | $805M | $4.7B |
| Year 3 | $9.5B | $1.3B | $361M | $924M | $3.8B |
| Year 4 | $9.9B | $1.4B | $290M | $1.0B | $2.8B |
| Year 5 | $10.2B | $1.4B | $212M | $1.1B | $1.6B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 8.5× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $12.2B | |
| − Debt left | $1.6B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $10.6B | |
| Money multiple | 1.63× | on $6.5B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 10.3% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $58.54; the IRR reaches 20% at $62.76 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $64.39 | 18.5% |
| 20% | $70.25 | 14.0% |
| 30% | $76.10 | 10.3% |
| 40% | $81.96 | 7.2% |
| 50% | $87.81 | 4.6% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $8.0B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $1.1B | 14.1% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $789M | |
| Debt | $232M | |
| Cash | $254M | |
| Share price | $58.54 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 7.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 30% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings would cost about $81.96 a share, $13.4B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $67.15 | $11.0B |
| Median | 40% | $81.96 | $13.4B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $93.78 | $15.3B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.54× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings' latest quarter
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings, Q3 2026: revenue $2.2B (+14% year over year), operating margin 8.1%, net earnings $118M, operating cash flow $350M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($76.10 a share) would return about 10% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $62.76 a share (7% against today's $58.54).
What would a takeover of Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings would cost about $81.96 a share, $13.4B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.