Filing Flows › Coca Cola (KO) › Takeover & LBO
Is Coca Cola (KO) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($124.44 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $61.04 a share (−36% against today's $95.72). At $567.3B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 3.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.76× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $124.44 | today's $95.72 plus 30% |
| × shares | 4,314.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $536.8B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $41.8B | |
| − Cash | $13.5B | |
| + Other claims | $2.2B | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $567.3B | 34.7× EBITDA of $16.4B |
| Fees | $11.3B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $90.0B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $488.7B | 84% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $54.7B | $17.5B | $6.9B | $6.5B | $83.4B |
| Year 2 | $58.0B | $18.6B | $6.4B | $7.7B | $75.7B |
| Year 3 | $60.9B | $19.5B | $5.8B | $8.9B | $66.7B |
| Year 4 | $63.4B | $20.3B | $5.1B | $10.1B | $56.6B |
| Year 5 | $65.3B | $20.9B | $4.3B | $11.3B | $45.4B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 27.1× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $567.3B | |
| − Debt left | $45.4B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $521.9B | |
| Money multiple | 1.07× | on $488.7B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 1.3% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $95.72; the IRR reaches 20% at $61.04 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $105.30 | 5.2% |
| 20% | $114.87 | 3.2% |
| 30% | $124.44 | 1.3% |
| 40% | $134.01 | −0.3% |
| 50% | $143.59 | −1.9% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $51.1B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $16.4B | 32.0% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $1.0B | |
| Capital spending | $1.9B | |
| Debt | $41.8B | |
| Cash | $13.5B | |
| Share price | $95.72 | on Nov 5, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 7.1% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 17% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Coca Cola would cost about $126.84 a share, $547.2B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $114.87 | $495.5B |
| Median | 32.5% | $126.84 | $547.2B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $145.31 | $626.9B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.76× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Coca Cola's latest quarter
Coca Cola, Q3 2026: revenue $13.4B (+7% year over year), operating margin 33.4%, net earnings $4.0B, operating cash flow $4.9B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Coca Cola being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Coca Cola?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($124.44 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $61.04 a share (−36% against today's $95.72). At $567.3B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Coca Cola cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Coca Cola would cost about $126.84 a share, $547.2B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.