Filing Flows › Lazard (LAZ) › Takeover & LBO
Is Lazard (LAZ) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($49.86 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $29.94 a share (−22% against today's $38.35). Historically 3.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.65× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $49.86 | today's $38.35 plus 30% |
| × shares | 107.3 million | |
| = Equity value | $5.3B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $1.7B | |
| − Cash | $1.3B | |
| + Other claims | −$8.3M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $5.8B | 19.3× EBITDA of $298M |
| Fees | $115M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.6B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $4.2B | 72% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $3.6B | $322M | $125M | $119M | $1.5B |
| Year 2 | $3.9B | $344M | $116M | $145M | $1.4B |
| Year 3 | $4.1B | $363M | $105M | $171M | $1.2B |
| Year 4 | $4.3B | $378M | $92.1M | $197M | $1.0B |
| Year 5 | $4.4B | $389M | $77.0M | $222M | $785M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 15.2× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $5.9B | |
| − Debt left | $785M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $5.1B | |
| Money multiple | 1.21× | on $4.2B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 3.9% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $38.35; the IRR reaches 20% at $29.94 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $42.19 | 8.6% |
| 20% | $46.02 | 6.1% |
| 30% | $49.86 | 3.9% |
| 40% | $53.69 | 1.9% |
| 50% | $57.53 | 0.2% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $3.4B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $298M | 8.8% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $31.2M | |
| Capital spending | $15.3M | |
| Debt | $1.7B | |
| Cash | $1.3B | |
| Share price | $38.35 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 14.9% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 9.5% to 33.6%), according to the 17 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Lazard would cost about $44.06 a share, $4.7B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 9.5% | $41.99 | $4.5B |
| Median | 14.9% | $44.06 | $4.7B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 33.6% | $51.24 | $5.5B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.65× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Lazard's latest quarter
Lazard, Q3 2026: revenue $836M (+8% year over year), operating margin 6.5%, net earnings $29.2M, operating cash flow $316M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Lazard being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Lazard?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($49.86 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $29.94 a share (−22% against today's $38.35).
What would a takeover of Lazard cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 14.9% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 9.5% to 33.6%), according to the 17 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Lazard would cost about $44.06 a share, $4.7B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.