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Levi Strauss (LEVI): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q3 FY26, to Aug 30, 2026, filed Oct 7, 2026; rules v1.1
Levi Strauss (LEVI): 0 rules of 10 triggered on the filings to Aug 30, 2026. 2 to review; 1 with insufficient data; 3 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued To review · confidence medium
Net income of $601M is at a high against a median of $283M over eight years; at 14.9× the market is not pricing it as cheap, but a multiple on this year's profit still understates the mid-cycle one (31.5×).
A precise DCF value = the true value To review · confidence high
The DCF's point value is 22.16 a share (price 22.86); 71% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from 16.04 to 28.29; across every method the research ran the range is 3 to 54. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
Innocent reading: A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Not triggered confidence high
Free cash flow did not rise ($671M → $308M): the trap does not arise.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year before | FY24 |
| Fiscal year | FY25 |
| Operating cash flow, year before | $898M |
| Operating cash flow | $530M |
| Capex, year before | $228M |
| Capex | $221M |
| Free cash flow, year before | $671M |
| Free cash flow | $308M |
| Change in FCF | −$363M |
| Change in capex | −$6M |
| Working capital: change in its cash contribution | −$422M |
FCF = operating cash flow − cash capex; ΔFCF = ΔOCF − ΔCapEx; the working-capital part is the change in the cash-bridge items (receivables, inventory, payables, accruals), with the sign of the cash flow statement
Source: FY25 (cash flow statement, fiscal year) · FY24 (cash flow statement, fiscal year before)
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Not triggered confidence high
Stock compensation is 1.3% of revenue: small enough that adding it back changes little.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY25 |
| Stock compensation | $82M |
| Revenue | $6.3B |
| SBC / revenue | +1.3% |
| Buybacks | $30M |
| Buybacks / SBC | 0.4 |
| Diluted shares, year before | 402.4M shares |
| Diluted shares | 399.7M shares |
| Diluted shares: change | -0.7% |
SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section
Source: FY25 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Not triggered confidence medium
Receivables grew 3% against revenue 4% in Q3 FY26; DSO 38 against a median of 39: collections are keeping pace with sales.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 FY26 |
| Revenue, year over year | +4.3% |
| Receivables, year over year | +3.1% |
| Quarter before | Q2 FY26 |
| Revenue y/y, quarter before | +8.0% |
| Receivables y/y, quarter before | -5.1% |
| Days sales outstanding | 37.6 |
| DSO, median of eight quarters | 39.3 |
| Receivables | $745M |
| Revenue | $1.6B |
receivables and revenue against the same quarter a year earlier; DSO = receivables / quarterly revenue × days, against the median of the eight quarters before
Source: Q3 FY26 (receivables and revenue) · Q3 FY25 (the same quarter a year earlier)
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Insufficient data
no reconciliation table read from the releases yet and fewer than three quarters with both an adjusted and a GAAP EPS
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Not triggered confidence medium
Nothing comes due within a year; net debt is $264M.
The figures and how they are read
| Cash and investments | $779M |
| Debt | $1.0B |
| Net debt | $264M |
| Due within a year | 0 |
| Read from | the debt maturity table |
| Free cash flow, twelve months | $643M |
| Cash plus free cash flow | $1.4B |
| Coverage of what is due | — |
| Due in the second year | 0 |
| Balance sheet date | 2026-08-30 |
due within a year from the maturity table (else the current portion of debt), against cash and investments plus free cash flow over the last twelve months (zero if negative); no credit lines assumed
Source: FY25 (debt maturities, cash and investments)
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not applicable
a loss in one of the quarters: EPS growth has no meaning
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued To review confidence medium
Net income of $601M is at a high against a median of $283M over eight years; at 14.9× the market is not pricing it as cheap, but a multiple on this year's profit still understates the mid-cycle one (31.5×).
The figures and how they are read
| market value | $8.9B |
| net income ttm | $601M |
| pe ttm | 14.90 |
| net income median fy | $283M |
| pe mid cycle | 31.50 |
| net income peak fy | $569M |
| years | FY17 / 281.0; FY18 / 283.0; FY19 / 395.0; FY20 / -127.0; FY21 / 554.0; FY22 / 569.0; FY23 / 250.0; FY24 / 211.0 |
| down years in window | 3 |
P/E on the trailing twelve months' net income against the P/E on the median net income of the last eight fiscal years (a mid-cycle stand-in); 'at a peak' = this year's profit at or above 90% of the best year and at least 1.3× the median
Source: Q3 FY26 (net income, trailing twelve months)
What would show the trap does not apply
- Profit holds at this level through the next two years (the eight-year peak was a new base, not a top)
- The industry's capacity and prices stay where they are rather than reverting
Look again: next filing.
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value To review confidence high
The DCF's point value is 22.16 a share (price 22.86); 71% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from 16.04 to 28.29; across every method the research ran the range is 3 to 54. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
The figures and how they are read
| dcf value | 22.16 |
| price | 22.86 |
| terminal value share | +71.2% |
| swing by input | Operating margin / ±3 pts / 16.04 / 28.29; Revenue growth (each year) / ±5 pts / 18.1 / 27.02; WACC / ±1 pt / 19.29 / 26.02; Tax rate / ±5 pts / 20.69 / 23.64 |
| range all methods | 3.2; 54.22 |
the DCF's point value against the share of it that is the terminal value and the value at each input moved by one step (growth ±5 pts, WACC ±1 pt, margin ±3 pts …); the range across every method the research ran
Source: 2026-11-08 (valuation research)
What would explain it innocently
- A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary
- The inputs that matter most are themselves well known (a regulated return, a long contract)
What to look for in the filing
- Which input you believe differs from the research's and why
- What the price implies for growth (the reverse DCF on the fair-value page)
What would show the trap does not apply
- The DCF's value is robust to the terminal growth and discount rate (the range's low end is still above the price)
- The company's cash flows over the next three years track the DCF's early years
Look again: next filing.
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → Levi Strauss: cash flow →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.