Filing Flows › Linde (LIN) › Takeover & LBO
Is Linde (LIN) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($677.60 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $342.14 a share (−34% against today's $521.23). At $337.7B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 3.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.71× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $677.60 | today's $521.23 plus 30% |
| × shares | 462.5 million | |
| = Equity value | $313.4B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $26.7B | |
| − Cash | $3.9B | |
| + Other claims | $1.6B | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $337.7B | 26.0× EBITDA of $13.0B |
| Fees | $6.8B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $71.4B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $273.0B | 79% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $39.1B | $14.0B | $5.5B | $1.2B | $70.3B |
| Year 2 | $41.8B | $15.0B | $5.4B | $1.6B | $68.6B |
| Year 3 | $44.1B | $15.8B | $5.3B | $2.1B | $66.5B |
| Year 4 | $45.9B | $16.5B | $5.1B | $2.5B | $64.0B |
| Year 5 | $47.3B | $17.0B | $4.9B | $2.9B | $61.0B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 20.4× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $346.6B | |
| − Debt left | $61.0B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $285.6B | |
| Money multiple | 1.05× | on $273.0B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 0.9% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $521.23; the IRR reaches 20% at $342.14 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $573.35 | 5.0% |
| 20% | $625.48 | 2.8% |
| 30% | $677.60 | 0.9% |
| 40% | $729.72 | −0.8% |
| 50% | $781.85 | −2.4% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $36.2B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $13.0B | 35.8% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $3.8B | |
| Capital spending | $5.6B | |
| Debt | $26.7B | |
| Cash | $3.9B | |
| Share price | $521.23 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 23% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Linde would cost about $690.63 a share, $319.4B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $625.48 | $289.3B |
| Median | 32.5% | $690.63 | $319.4B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $791.23 | $366.0B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.71× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Linde's latest quarter
Linde, Q3 2026: revenue $9.4B (+9% year over year), operating margin 22.9%, net earnings $1.7B, operating cash flow $3.2B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Linde being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Linde?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($677.60 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $342.14 a share (−34% against today's $521.23). At $337.7B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Linde cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Linde would cost about $690.63 a share, $319.4B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.