Filing Flows › LKQ (LKQ) › Takeover & LBO
Is LKQ (LKQ) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($26.31 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $14.90 a share (−26% against today's $20.23). Historically 4.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.86× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $26.31 | today's $20.23 plus 30% |
| × shares | 252.9 million | |
| = Equity value | $6.7B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $4.0B | |
| − Cash | $319M | |
| + Other claims | $23.0M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $10.3B | 9.7× EBITDA of $1.1B |
| Fees | $206M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $5.8B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $4.7B | 45% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $13.5B | $1.1B | $446M | $364M | $5.5B |
| Year 2 | $13.5B | $1.1B | $418M | $380M | $5.1B |
| Year 3 | $13.7B | $1.1B | $389M | $398M | $4.7B |
| Year 4 | $14.0B | $1.1B | $358M | $422M | $4.3B |
| Year 5 | $14.4B | $1.1B | $326M | $453M | $3.8B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 8.3× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $9.4B | |
| − Debt left | $3.8B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $5.6B | |
| Money multiple | 1.18× | on $4.7B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 3.4% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $20.23; the IRR reaches 20% at $14.90 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $22.26 | 8.7% |
| 20% | $24.28 | 5.9% |
| 30% | $26.31 | 3.4% |
| 40% | $28.33 | 1.2% |
| 50% | $30.35 | −0.7% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $13.5B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $1.1B | 7.8% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $411M | |
| Capital spending | $186M | |
| Debt | $4.0B | |
| Cash | $319M | |
| Share price | $20.23 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows -0.4% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 30% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, LKQ would cost about $28.33 a share, $7.2B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $23.21 | $5.9B |
| Median | 40% | $28.33 | $7.2B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $32.42 | $8.2B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.86× the average). Its figures put it in decile 5 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
LKQ's latest quarter
LKQ, Q3 2026: revenue $3.3B (-5% year over year), operating margin 1.6%, net loss $27.0M, operating cash flow $411M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is LKQ being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy LKQ?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($26.31 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $14.90 a share (−26% against today's $20.23).
What would a takeover of LKQ cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, LKQ would cost about $28.33 a share, $7.2B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.