Filing Flows › Loar Holdings (LOAR) › Takeover & LBO
Is Loar Holdings (LOAR) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($79.62 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $34.35 a share (−44% against today's $61.25). Historically 6.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.34× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $79.62 | today's $61.25 plus 30% |
| × shares | 93.7 million | |
| = Equity value | $7.5B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $949M | |
| − Cash | $122M | |
| = Enterprise value | $8.3B | 58.9× EBITDA of $141M |
| Fees | $166M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $774M | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $7.7B | 91% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $633M | $152M | $59.2M | $78.6M | $696M |
| Year 2 | $676M | $162M | $53.2M | $93.5M | $602M |
| Year 3 | $713M | $171M | $46.1M | $108M | $494M |
| Year 4 | $743M | $178M | $37.8M | $123M | $371M |
| Year 5 | $766M | $184M | $28.4M | $137M | $235M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 46.6× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $8.6B | |
| − Debt left | $235M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $8.3B | |
| Money multiple | 1.09× | on $7.7B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 1.7% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $61.25; the IRR reaches 20% at $34.35 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $67.38 | 5.1% |
| 20% | $73.50 | 3.3% |
| 30% | $79.62 | 1.7% |
| 40% | $85.75 | 0.2% |
| 50% | $91.88 | −1.2% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $586M | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $141M | 24.0% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $12.6M | |
| Debt | $949M | |
| Cash | $122M | |
| Share price | $61.25 | on Oct 28, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Loar Holdings would cost about $85.75 a share, $8.0B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $70.25 | $6.6B |
| Median | 40% | $85.75 | $8.0B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $98.12 | $9.2B |
The odds, from history
Historically 6.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.34× the average). Its figures put it in decile 9 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Loar Holdings' latest quarter
Loar Holdings, Q3 2026: revenue $176M (+39% year over year), operating margin 26.2%, net earnings $19.6M, operating cash flow $44.9M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Loar Holdings being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Loar Holdings?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($79.62 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $34.35 a share (−44% against today's $61.25).
What would a takeover of Loar Holdings cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Loar Holdings would cost about $85.75 a share, $8.0B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.