Filing Flows › Lumen Technologies (LUMN) › Takeover & LBO
Is Lumen Technologies (LUMN) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($5.13 a share) would return a loss of all the money the buyer puts in to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 3.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.75× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $5.13 | today's $3.94 plus 30% |
| × shares | 1,004.8 million | |
| = Equity value | $5.2B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $13.3B | |
| − Cash | $978M | |
| = Enterprise value | $17.5B | 6.2× EBITDA of $2.8B |
| Fees | $350M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $11.4B | 4.0× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $6.5B | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $11.1B | $2.7B | $871M | −$2.4B | $13.7B |
| Year 2 | $10.9B | $2.7B | $1.1B | −$2.5B | $16.3B |
| Year 3 | $10.9B | $2.7B | $1.2B | −$2.7B | $19.0B |
| Year 4 | $11.1B | $2.7B | $1.5B | −$3.0B | $21.9B |
| Year 5 | $11.4B | $2.8B | $1.7B | −$3.2B | $25.2B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 5.8× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $16.3B | |
| − Debt left | $25.2B | |
| = Buyer's equity | −$8.9B | |
| Money multiple | -1.37× | on $6.5B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −100.0% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $3.94.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $4.34 | −100.0% |
| 20% | $4.73 | −100.0% |
| 30% | $5.13 | −100.0% |
| 40% | $5.52 | −100.0% |
| 50% | $5.92 | −100.0% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $11.5B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $2.8B | 24.6% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $2.7B | |
| Capital spending | $4.4B | |
| Debt | $13.3B | |
| Cash | $978M | |
| Share price | $3.94 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows -3.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Lumen Technologies would cost about $5.23 a share, $5.3B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $4.73 | $4.8B |
| Median | 32.5% | $5.23 | $5.3B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $5.99 | $6.0B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.75× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Lumen Technologies' latest quarter
Lumen Technologies, Q3 2026: revenue $2.7B (-12% year over year), operating margin -6.2%, net loss $265M, operating cash flow $518M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Lumen Technologies being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Lumen Technologies?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($5.13 a share) would return a loss of all the money the buyer puts in to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Lumen Technologies cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Lumen Technologies would cost about $5.23 a share, $5.3B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.