Filing Flows › Mastercard (MA) › Takeover & LBO
Is Mastercard (MA) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($854.85 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $447.41 a share (−32% against today's $657.58). At $762.6B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 2.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.47× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $854.85 | today's $657.58 plus 30% |
| × shares | 876.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $748.9B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $23.9B | |
| − Cash | $10.1B | |
| + Other claims | −$13.0M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $762.6B | 33.9× EBITDA of $22.5B |
| Fees | $15.3B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $123.7B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $654.1B | 84% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $39.2B | $24.3B | $9.5B | $11.1B | $112.6B |
| Year 2 | $41.8B | $25.9B | $8.6B | $13.2B | $99.4B |
| Year 3 | $44.1B | $27.4B | $7.6B | $15.1B | $84.3B |
| Year 4 | $46.0B | $28.5B | $6.4B | $17.0B | $67.3B |
| Year 5 | $47.4B | $29.4B | $5.1B | $18.8B | $48.5B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 26.2× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $770.3B | |
| − Debt left | $48.5B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $721.8B | |
| Money multiple | 1.10× | on $654.1B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 2.0% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $657.58; the IRR reaches 20% at $447.41 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $723.34 | 6.1% |
| 20% | $789.10 | 3.9% |
| 30% | $854.85 | 2.0% |
| 40% | $920.61 | 0.2% |
| 50% | $986.37 | −1.3% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $36.3B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $22.5B | 62.0% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $1.2B | |
| Capital spending | $779M | |
| Debt | $23.9B | |
| Cash | $10.1B | |
| Share price | $657.58 | on Nov 5, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 19% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Mastercard would cost about $920.61 a share, $806.5B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $754.24 | $660.7B |
| Median | 40% | $920.61 | $806.5B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $1,053.44 | $922.8B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.47× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Mastercard's latest quarter
Mastercard, Q3 2026: revenue $9.8B (+14% year over year), operating margin 59.8%, net earnings $4.6B, operating cash flow $5.1B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Mastercard being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Mastercard?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($854.85 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $447.41 a share (−32% against today's $657.58). At $762.6B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Mastercard cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Mastercard would cost about $920.61 a share, $806.5B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.