Filing Flows › Masco (MAS) › Takeover & LBO
Is Masco (MAS) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($107.05 a share) would return a loss of about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $59.91 a share (−27% against today's $82.35). Historically 3.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.61× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $107.05 | today's $82.35 plus 30% |
| × shares | 196.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $21.0B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $2.9B | |
| − Cash | $610M | |
| + Other claims | $256M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $23.6B | 15.5× EBITDA of $1.5B |
| Fees | $472M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $8.4B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $15.7B | 65% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $7.7B | $1.5B | $641M | $549M | $7.8B |
| Year 2 | $7.9B | $1.6B | $599M | $592M | $7.2B |
| Year 3 | $8.0B | $1.6B | $554M | $643M | $6.6B |
| Year 4 | $8.2B | $1.6B | $504M | $704M | $5.9B |
| Year 5 | $8.5B | $1.7B | $450M | $773M | $5.1B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 12.3× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $20.7B | |
| − Debt left | $5.1B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $15.5B | |
| Money multiple | 0.99× | on $15.7B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −0.2% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $82.35; the IRR reaches 20% at $59.91 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $90.59 | 4.7% |
| 20% | $98.82 | 2.1% |
| 30% | $107.05 | −0.2% |
| 40% | $115.29 | −2.1% |
| 50% | $123.52 | −3.9% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $7.7B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $1.5B | 19.9% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $152M | |
| Capital spending | $163M | |
| Debt | $2.9B | |
| Cash | $610M | |
| Share price | $82.35 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 0.9% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 24% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Masco would cost about $115.29 a share, $22.6B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $94.46 | $18.5B |
| Median | 40% | $115.29 | $22.6B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $131.92 | $25.9B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.61× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Masco's latest quarter
Masco, Q3 2026: revenue $2.0B (+3% year over year), operating margin 17.2%, net earnings $230M, operating cash flow $371M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Masco being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Masco?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($107.05 a share) would return a loss of about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $59.91 a share (−27% against today's $82.35).
What would a takeover of Masco cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Masco would cost about $115.29 a share, $22.6B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.