Filing Flows › MediaAlpha (MAX) › Takeover & LBO
Is MediaAlpha (MAX) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($19.18 a share) would return about 7% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $13.57 a share (−8% against today's $14.75). Historically 6.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.3× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $19.18 | today's $14.75 plus 30% |
| × shares | 62.8 million | |
| = Equity value | $1.2B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $175M | |
| − Cash | $18.7M | |
| + Other claims | −$31.6M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $1.3B | 13.9× EBITDA of $95.8M |
| Fees | $26.6M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $527M | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $829M | 61% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.4B | $103M | $40.3M | $44.4M | $482M |
| Year 2 | $1.5B | $110M | $36.9M | $54.4M | $428M |
| Year 3 | $1.6B | $116M | $32.7M | $64.6M | $363M |
| Year 4 | $1.6B | $121M | $27.8M | $74.8M | $288M |
| Year 5 | $1.7B | $125M | $22.1M | $84.8M | $204M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 11.0× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $1.4B | |
| − Debt left | $204M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $1.2B | |
| Money multiple | 1.41× | on $829M put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 7.1% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $14.75; the IRR reaches 20% at $13.57 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $16.23 | 12.8% |
| 20% | $17.70 | 9.7% |
| 30% | $19.18 | 7.1% |
| 40% | $20.65 | 4.8% |
| 50% | $22.12 | 2.8% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.3B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $95.8M | 7.4% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $2.3M | |
| Capital spending | $984K | |
| Debt | $175M | |
| Cash | $18.7M | |
| Share price | $14.75 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, MediaAlpha would cost about $20.65 a share, $1.3B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $16.92 | $1.1B |
| Median | 40% | $20.65 | $1.3B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $23.63 | $1.5B |
The odds, from history
Historically 6.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.3× the average). Its figures put it in decile 8 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
MediaAlpha's latest quarter
MediaAlpha, Q3 2026: revenue $376M (+23% year over year), operating margin 7.7%, net earnings $25.8M, operating cash flow $21.6M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is MediaAlpha being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy MediaAlpha?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($19.18 a share) would return about 7% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $13.57 a share (−8% against today's $14.75).
What would a takeover of MediaAlpha cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, MediaAlpha would cost about $20.65 a share, $1.3B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.