Filing Flows › Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL) › Takeover & LBO
Is Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout does not work for Madrigal Pharmaceuticals on its latest figures: it has no positive EBITDA to borrow against (−$151M over the last 12 months, on revenue of $1.4B). Historically 2.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.5× the average).
Why a leveraged buyout does not fit
A leveraged buyout is paid for mostly with debt that the company's own cash flow repays. Madrigal Pharmaceuticals' EBITDA over the last 12 months was −$151M on revenue of $1.4B, so there is nothing to lend against and nothing to repay a loan with: a buyer would have to pay almost entirely with its own money. That is the kind of deal another company — a strategic buyer that wants the products, the pipeline or the technology — makes, not a private-equity fund. The model therefore gives no buyout price.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Madrigal Pharmaceuticals would cost about $580.99 a share, $17.6B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 22% | $525.04 | $15.9B |
| Median | 35% | $580.99 | $17.6B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 45% | $624.02 | $18.9B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.5× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals' latest quarter
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Q3 2026: revenue $431M (+50% year over year), operating margin 13.0%, net earnings $55.4M, operating cash flow $121M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Madrigal Pharmaceuticals being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Madrigal Pharmaceuticals?
A leveraged buyout does not work for Madrigal Pharmaceuticals on its latest figures: it has no positive EBITDA to borrow against (−$151M over the last 12 months, on revenue of $1.4B). With no cash flow to repay a loan, a buyer would pay almost entirely with its own money: a deal for another company (a strategic buyer), not for a private-equity fund.
What would a takeover of Madrigal Pharmaceuticals cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Madrigal Pharmaceuticals would cost about $580.99 a share, $17.6B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.