Filing Flows › Medline (MDLN) › Takeover & LBO
Is Medline (MDLN) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($51.69 a share) would return a loss of about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $19.92 a share (−50% against today's $39.76). At $84.6B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 2.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.5× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $51.69 | today's $39.76 plus 30% |
| × shares | 1,316.4 million | |
| = Equity value | $68.0B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $12.6B | |
| − Cash | $3.6B | |
| + Other claims | $7.6B | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $84.6B | 30.5× EBITDA of $2.8B |
| Fees | $1.7B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $15.2B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $71.0B | 82% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $31.6B | $2.9B | $1.2B | $960M | $14.3B |
| Year 2 | $32.5B | $2.9B | $1.1B | $1.1B | $13.2B |
| Year 3 | $33.5B | $3.0B | $1.0B | $1.2B | $12.0B |
| Year 4 | $34.5B | $3.1B | $919M | $1.3B | $10.7B |
| Year 5 | $35.6B | $3.2B | $818M | $1.5B | $9.2B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 24.9× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $79.9B | |
| − Debt left | $9.2B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $70.7B | |
| Money multiple | 0.99× | on $71.0B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −0.1% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $39.76; the IRR reaches 20% at $19.92 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $43.74 | 3.2% |
| 20% | $47.71 | 1.5% |
| 30% | $51.69 | −0.1% |
| 40% | $55.66 | −1.5% |
| 50% | $59.64 | −2.9% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $30.7B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $2.8B | 9.0% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $1.0B | |
| Capital spending | $486M | |
| Debt | $12.6B | |
| Cash | $3.6B | |
| Share price | $39.76 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 3.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 22% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Medline would cost about $53.68 a share, $70.7B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 22% | $48.51 | $63.9B |
| Median | 35% | $53.68 | $70.7B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 45% | $57.65 | $75.9B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.5× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Medline's latest quarter
Medline, Q3 2026: revenue $7.9B (+10% year over year), operating margin 6.4%, net earnings $198M, operating cash flow $1.0B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Medline being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Medline?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($51.69 a share) would return a loss of about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $19.92 a share (−50% against today's $39.76). At $84.6B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Medline cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Medline would cost about $53.68 a share, $70.7B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.