Filing Flows › Medtronic (MDT) › Takeover & LBO
Is Medtronic (MDT) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($136.29 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $78.15 a share (−25% against today's $104.84). At $195.1B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 2.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.39× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $136.29 | today's $104.84 plus 30% |
| × shares | 1,285.1 million | |
| = Equity value | $175.1B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $28.2B | |
| − Cash | $8.8B | |
| + Other claims | $618M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $195.1B | 20.1× EBITDA of $9.7B |
| Fees | $3.9B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $53.5B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $145.5B | 73% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $40.5B | $10.5B | $4.1B | $3.4B | $50.1B |
| Year 2 | $43.3B | $11.2B | $3.8B | $4.1B | $46.0B |
| Year 3 | $45.7B | $11.8B | $3.5B | $4.8B | $41.2B |
| Year 4 | $47.6B | $12.3B | $3.2B | $5.5B | $35.7B |
| Year 5 | $49.0B | $12.7B | $2.7B | $6.1B | $29.6B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 15.9× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $202.0B | |
| − Debt left | $29.6B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $172.4B | |
| Money multiple | 1.18× | on $145.5B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 3.5% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $104.84; the IRR reaches 20% at $78.15 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $115.32 | 7.9% |
| 20% | $125.81 | 5.5% |
| 30% | $136.29 | 3.5% |
| 40% | $146.78 | 1.6% |
| 50% | $157.26 | −0.1% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $37.5B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $9.7B | 25.9% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $2.9B | |
| Capital spending | $1.9B | |
| Debt | $28.2B | |
| Cash | $8.8B | |
| Share price | $104.84 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 20% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Medtronic would cost about $141.53 a share, $181.9B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 22% | $127.90 | $164.4B |
| Median | 35% | $141.53 | $181.9B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 45% | $152.02 | $195.4B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.39× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Medtronic's latest quarter
Medtronic, Q1 FY27: revenue $9.8B (+14% year over year), operating margin 18.1%, net earnings $1.5B, operating cash flow $1.8B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Medtronic being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Medtronic?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($136.29 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $78.15 a share (−25% against today's $104.84). At $195.1B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Medtronic cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Medtronic would cost about $141.53 a share, $181.9B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.