Filing Flows › MeiraGTx Holdings (MGTX) › Takeover & LBO
Is MeiraGTx Holdings (MGTX) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($12.34 a share) would return about 24% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 6.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.33× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $12.34 | today's $9.49 plus 30% |
| × shares | 93.8 million | |
| = Equity value | $1.2B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $143M | |
| + Other claims | $209K | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $1.0B | 5.2× EBITDA of $196M |
| Fees | $20.3M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $659M | 3.4× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $375M | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $429M | $212M | $50.4M | $124M | $536M |
| Year 2 | $458M | $226M | $41.0M | $143M | $393M |
| Year 3 | $483M | $239M | $30.1M | $161M | $232M |
| Year 4 | $504M | $249M | $17.7M | $180M | $52.3M |
| Year 5 | $519M | $256M | $4.0M | $197M | $0 |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 3.8× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $976M | |
| − Debt left | $0 | |
| + Cash built up | $145M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $1.1B | |
| Money multiple | 2.99× | on $375M put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 24.5% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $9.49.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $10.44 | 32.6% |
| 20% | $11.39 | 28.4% |
| 30% | $12.34 | 24.5% |
| 40% | $13.29 | 20.6% |
| 50% | $14.23 | 17.0% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $398M | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $196M | 49.3% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $12.1M | |
| Capital spending | $3.2M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $143M | |
| Share price | $9.49 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, MeiraGTx Holdings would cost about $12.81 a share, $1.2B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 22% | $11.58 | $1.1B |
| Median | 35% | $12.81 | $1.2B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 45% | $13.76 | $1.3B |
The odds, from history
Historically 6.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.33× the average). Its figures put it in decile 9 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
MeiraGTx Holdings' latest quarter
MeiraGTx Holdings, Q2 2026: revenue $321M (87× year over year), operating margin 76.0%, net earnings $161M, operating cash flow −$38.5M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is MeiraGTx Holdings being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy MeiraGTx Holdings?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($12.34 a share) would return about 24% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of MeiraGTx Holdings cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, MeiraGTx Holdings would cost about $12.81 a share, $1.2B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.