Filing Flows › Maximus (MMS) › Takeover & LBO
Is Maximus (MMS) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($84.62 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $49.18 a share (−24% against today's $65.09). Historically 4.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.96× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $84.62 | today's $65.09 plus 30% |
| × shares | 53.1 million | |
| = Equity value | $4.5B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $1.6B | |
| − Cash | $57.0M | |
| = Enterprise value | $6.1B | 9.6× EBITDA of $630M |
| Fees | $121M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $3.5B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $2.7B | 44% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $5.1B | $611M | $265M | $238M | $3.2B |
| Year 2 | $5.0B | $602M | $247M | $245M | $3.0B |
| Year 3 | $5.0B | $602M | $228M | $260M | $2.7B |
| Year 4 | $5.1B | $611M | $208M | $274M | $2.4B |
| Year 5 | $5.2B | $630M | $187M | $295M | $2.2B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 8.0× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $5.0B | |
| − Debt left | $2.2B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $2.9B | |
| Money multiple | 1.05× | on $2.7B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 1.1% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $65.09; the IRR reaches 20% at $49.18 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $71.60 | 7.3% |
| 20% | $78.11 | 3.9% |
| 30% | $84.62 | 1.1% |
| 40% | $91.13 | −1.4% |
| 50% | $97.64 | −3.5% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $5.2B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $630M | 12.0% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $51.3M | |
| Capital spending | $36.3M | |
| Debt | $1.6B | |
| Cash | $57.0M | |
| Share price | $65.09 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows -3.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 25% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Maximus would cost about $91.13 a share, $4.8B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $74.66 | $4.0B |
| Median | 40% | $91.13 | $4.8B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $104.27 | $5.5B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.96× the average). Its figures put it in decile 6 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Maximus' latest quarter
Maximus, Q3 FY26: revenue $1.3B (-5% year over year), operating margin 12.6%, net earnings $104M, operating cash flow −$125M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Maximus being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Maximus?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($84.62 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $49.18 a share (−24% against today's $65.09).
What would a takeover of Maximus cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Maximus would cost about $91.13 a share, $4.8B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.