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Moog (MOG-A): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q3 FY26, to Jun 27, 2026, filed Jul 31, 2026; rules v1.1
Moog (MOG-A): 0 rules of 10 triggered on the filings to Jun 27, 2026. 2 to review; 1 with insufficient data; 2 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued To review · confidence medium
Net income of $377M is at a high against a median of $171M over eight years; at 27.5× the market is not pricing it as cheap, but a multiple on this year's profit still understates the mid-cycle one (60.7×).
A precise DCF value = the true value To review · confidence high
The DCF's point value is 258.30 a share (price 323.56); 74% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from 192.08 to 324.52; across every method the research ran the range is -255 to 1,130. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
Innocent reading: A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Not triggered confidence medium
Free cash flow rose $82M to $128M; working capital and lower capex explain 41% of it, so most of the gain is in operating cash flow itself.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year before | FY24 |
| Fiscal year | FY25 |
| Operating cash flow, year before | $198M |
| Operating cash flow | $273M |
| Capex, year before | $152M |
| Capex | $145M |
| Free cash flow, year before | $46M |
| Free cash flow | $128M |
| Change in FCF | $82M |
| Change in capex | −$7M |
| Working capital: change in its cash contribution | $26M |
| Of which: capex cut | $7M |
| Of which: working capital released | $26M |
| Share of the increase that need not repeat | +40.6% |
| Operating cash flow before working capital: change | 49001000.00 |
FCF = operating cash flow − cash capex; ΔFCF = ΔOCF − ΔCapEx; the working-capital part is the change in the cash-bridge items (receivables, inventory, payables, accruals), with the sign of the cash flow statement
Source: FY25 (cash flow statement, fiscal year) · FY24 (cash flow statement, fiscal year before)
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Not triggered confidence high
Stock compensation is 0.4% of revenue: small enough that adding it back changes little.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY25 |
| Stock compensation | $17M |
| Revenue | $3.9B |
| SBC / revenue | +0.4% |
| Buybacks | $143M |
| Buybacks / SBC | 8.5 |
| Diluted shares, year before | 32.4M shares |
| Diluted shares | 32.1M shares |
| Diluted shares: change | -0.9% |
SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section
Source: FY25 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Insufficient data
fewer than five quarters with receivables and revenue on file (a year-over-year comparison needs five)
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Not triggered confidence low
Adjusted and GAAP EPS were within 10% of each other in the last 3 quarters (adjusted below GAAP).
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter / adjusted EPS / GAAP EPS / gap | 2025-12-31 / 2.63 / 2.46 / 0.065; 2026-03-31 / 2.64 / 2.55 / 0.034; 2026-06-30 / 3.72 / 4.74 / -0.274 |
| Quarters with adjusted ≥ 10% above GAAP | 0 |
| Quarters compared | 3 |
| Latest gap | -27.4% |
the analysts' 'actual' (usually the company's adjusted EPS) against GAAP net income ÷ diluted shares for the matching quarter; a gap of 10% or more counts (the stand-in until three releases' reconciliation tables are on file)
Source: 2025-12-31 (adjusted 2.63 vs GAAP 2.46) · 2026-03-31 (adjusted 2.64 vs GAAP 2.55) · 2026-06-30 (adjusted 3.72 vs GAAP 4.74)
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Not triggered confidence medium
$2M comes due within a year, 266.8× covered by cash and investments of $67M plus $350M of free cash flow.
The figures and how they are read
| Cash and investments | $67M |
| Debt | $908M |
| Net debt | $841M |
| Due within a year | $2M |
| Read from | the current portion of debt on the balance sheet |
| Free cash flow, twelve months | $350M |
| Cash plus free cash flow | $417M |
| Coverage of what is due | 266.8 |
| Due in the second year | — |
| Balance sheet date | 2026-06-27 |
due within a year from the maturity table (else the current portion of debt), against cash and investments plus free cash flow over the last twelve months (zero if negative); no credit lines assumed
Source: 2026-06-27 (debt maturities, cash and investments)
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not triggered confidence high
EPS rose 158% and net income rose 160% in Q3 FY26; the share count rose 0.6%: EPS growth follows profit growth.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 FY26 |
| Quarter before | Q3 FY25 |
| EPS, year before | $1.83 |
| EPS | $4.74 |
| Net income, year before | $58M |
| Net income | $152M |
| Diluted shares, year before | 31.9M shares |
| Diluted shares | 32.1M shares |
| EPS growth | +158.4% |
| Net income growth | +159.9% |
| Diluted shares: change | +0.6% |
| eps from profit | $2.93 |
| eps from share count | -$0.03 |
EPS and net income against the same quarter a year earlier; the EPS bridge attributes the change to profit first, then to the share count (the order is fixed and disclosed)
Source: Q3 FY26 (net income, diluted shares, EPS) · Q3 FY25 (the same quarter a year earlier)
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued To review confidence medium
Net income of $377M is at a high against a median of $171M over eight years; at 27.5× the market is not pricing it as cheap, but a multiple on this year's profit still understates the mid-cycle one (60.7×).
The figures and how they are read
| market value | $10.4B |
| net income ttm | $377M |
| pe ttm | 27.50 |
| net income median fy | $171M |
| pe mid cycle | 60.70 |
| net income peak fy | $235M |
| years | FY18 / 97.0; FY19 / 180.0; FY20 / 9.0; FY21 / 157.0; FY22 / 155.0; FY23 / 171.0; FY24 / 207.0; FY25 / 235.0 |
| down years in window | 2 |
P/E on the trailing twelve months' net income against the P/E on the median net income of the last eight fiscal years (a mid-cycle stand-in); 'at a peak' = this year's profit at or above 90% of the best year and at least 1.3× the median
Source: Q3 FY26 (net income, trailing twelve months)
What would show the trap does not apply
- Profit holds at this level through the next two years (the eight-year peak was a new base, not a top)
- The industry's capacity and prices stay where they are rather than reverting
Look again: next filing.
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value To review confidence high
The DCF's point value is 258.30 a share (price 323.56); 74% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from 192.08 to 324.52; across every method the research ran the range is -255 to 1,130. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
The figures and how they are read
| dcf value | 258.30 |
| price | 323.56 |
| terminal value share | +73.8% |
| swing by input | Operating margin / ±3 pts / 192.08 / 324.52; Revenue growth (each year) / ±5 pts / 208.01 / 317.91; WACC / ±1 pt / 220.91 / 308.77; Tax rate / ±5 pts / 241.27 / 275.33 |
| range all methods | -254.77; 1130.14 |
the DCF's point value against the share of it that is the terminal value and the value at each input moved by one step (growth ±5 pts, WACC ±1 pt, margin ±3 pts …); the range across every method the research ran
Source: 2026-11-08 (valuation research)
What would explain it innocently
- A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary
- The inputs that matter most are themselves well known (a regulated return, a long contract)
What to look for in the filing
- Which input you believe differs from the research's and why
- What the price implies for growth (the reverse DCF on the fair-value page)
What would show the trap does not apply
- The DCF's value is robust to the terminal growth and discount rate (the range's low end is still above the price)
- The company's cash flows over the next three years track the DCF's early years
Look again: next filing.
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → Moog: cash flow →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.